המשבר האקלימי הקודם: התקופה הבין-קרחונית האחרונה בישראל

Israel, located at the fringe of the Saharan-Arabian deserts, is particularly vulnerable towarming and desertification, therefore, reconstruction of the hydroclimatic conditions ofthis region during periods of past climate change provides important insight into what mayoccur in the future. This paper reports on isotopic data with high temporal resolution of astalagmite from the Har Nof cave in Jerusalem, demonstrating major climate changes duringthe last interglacial Marine Isotope Stage 5e (MIS 5e) between 131–116 ka. In addition, weintegrate data from other caves in Israel and a deep-core sample from the Dead Sea.These records demonstrate that the northward expansion of climatic belts overthe Southern Levant during MIS 5e caused dramatic environmental changes, crosseda tipping point threshold, and was associated with a major ecological disruption. Suchabrupt changes are characterized by nonlinear, threshold-type responses occurring at ratessignificantly greater than background variability and forcing. The evidence suggests that theMIS 5e period was associated with increased instability. The environmental crisis includedthe complete loss of vegetation and soil, devastating fires, and a shift in precipitation fromwinter to summer. These extreme events are a warning message that elevated greenhousegases may increase desertification and instability of the Levant climate..