A global analysis of the impact of COVID-19 stay-at-home restrictions on crime

Amy E. Nivette; Renee Zahnow; Raul Aguilar; Andri Ahven; Shai Amram; Barak Ariel; María José Arosemena Burbano; Roberta Astolfi; Dirk Baier; Hyung Min Bark; Joris E.H. Beijers; Marcelo Bergman; Gregory Breetzke; I. Alberto Concha-Eastman; Sophie Curtis-Ham; Ryan Davenport; Carlos Díaz; Diego Fleitas; Manne Gerell; Kwang Ho Jang; Juha Kääriäinen; Tapio Lappi-Seppälä; Woon Sik Lim; Rosa Loureiro Revilla; Lorraine Mazerolle; Gorazd Meško; Noemí Pereda; Maria F.T. Peres; Rubén Poblete-Cazenave; Simon Rose; Robert Svensson; Nico Trajtenberg; Tanja van der Lippe; Joran Veldkamp; Carlos J.Vilalta Perdomo; Manuel P. Eisner

doi:10.1038/s41562-021-01139-z

A global analysis of the impact of COVID-19 stay-at-home restrictions on crime

Amy E. Nivette^*, Renee Zahnow, Raul Aguilar, Andri Ahven, Shai Amram, Barak Ariel, María José Arosemena Burbano, Roberta Astolfi, Dirk Baier, Hyung Min Bark, Joris E.H. Beijers, Marcelo Bergman, Gregory Breetzke, I. Alberto Concha-Eastman, Sophie Curtis-Ham, Ryan Davenport, Carlos Díaz, Diego Fleitas, Manne Gerell, Kwang Ho JangJuha Kääriäinen, Tapio Lappi-Seppälä, Woon Sik Lim, Rosa Loureiro Revilla, Lorraine Mazerolle, Gorazd Meško, Noemí Pereda, Maria F.T. Peres, Rubén Poblete-Cazenave, Simon Rose, Robert Svensson, Nico Trajtenberg, Tanja van der Lippe, Joran Veldkamp, Carlos J.Vilalta Perdomo, Manuel P. Eisner

^*Corresponding author for this work

Institute of Criminology

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

141 Scopus citations

Abstract

The stay-at-home restrictions to control the spread of COVID-19 led to unparalleled sudden change in daily life, but it is unclear how they affected urban crime globally. We collected data on daily counts of crime in 27 cities across 23 countries in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East and Asia. We conducted interrupted time series analyses to assess the impact of stay-at-home restrictions on different types of crime in each city. Our findings show that the stay-at-home policies were associated with a considerable drop in urban crime, but with substantial variation across cities and types of crime. Meta-regression results showed that more stringent restrictions over movement in public space were predictive of larger declines in crime.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	868-877
Number of pages	10
Journal	Nature Human Behaviour
Volume	5
Issue number	7
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-021-01139-z
State	Published - Jul 2021

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2021, The Author(s).

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Nivette, A. E., Zahnow, R., Aguilar, R., Ahven, A., Amram, S., Ariel, B., Burbano, M. J. A., Astolfi, R., Baier, D., Bark, H. M., Beijers, J. E. H., Bergman, M., Breetzke, G., Concha-Eastman, I. A., Curtis-Ham, S., Davenport, R., Díaz, C., Fleitas, D., Gerell, M., ... Eisner, M. P. (2021). A global analysis of the impact of COVID-19 stay-at-home restrictions on crime. Nature Human Behaviour, 5(7), 868-877. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-021-01139-z

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abstract = "The stay-at-home restrictions to control the spread of COVID-19 led to unparalleled sudden change in daily life, but it is unclear how they affected urban crime globally. We collected data on daily counts of crime in 27 cities across 23 countries in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East and Asia. We conducted interrupted time series analyses to assess the impact of stay-at-home restrictions on different types of crime in each city. Our findings show that the stay-at-home policies were associated with a considerable drop in urban crime, but with substantial variation across cities and types of crime. Meta-regression results showed that more stringent restrictions over movement in public space were predictive of larger declines in crime.",

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Nivette, AE, Zahnow, R, Aguilar, R, Ahven, A, Amram, S, Ariel, B, Burbano, MJA, Astolfi, R, Baier, D, Bark, HM, Beijers, JEH, Bergman, M, Breetzke, G, Concha-Eastman, IA, Curtis-Ham, S, Davenport, R, Díaz, C, Fleitas, D, Gerell, M, Jang, KH, Kääriäinen, J, Lappi-Seppälä, T, Lim, WS, Revilla, RL, Mazerolle, L, Meško, G, Pereda, N, Peres, MFT, Poblete-Cazenave, R, Rose, S, Svensson, R, Trajtenberg, N, van der Lippe, T, Veldkamp, J, Perdomo, CJV & Eisner, MP 2021, 'A global analysis of the impact of COVID-19 stay-at-home restrictions on crime', Nature Human Behaviour, vol. 5, no. 7, pp. 868-877. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-021-01139-z

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AU - Ariel, Barak

AU - Burbano, María José Arosemena

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AU - Mazerolle, Lorraine

AU - Meško, Gorazd

AU - Pereda, Noemí

AU - Peres, Maria F.T.

AU - Poblete-Cazenave, Rubén

AU - Rose, Simon

AU - Svensson, Robert

AU - Trajtenberg, Nico

AU - van der Lippe, Tanja

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AU - Perdomo, Carlos J.Vilalta

AU - Eisner, Manuel P.

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A global analysis of the impact of COVID-19 stay-at-home restrictions on crime

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