A Hierarchical Modeling Study of Absorbing Aerosol Impacts on Precipitation Characteristics and Extremes

The impact of anthropogenic aerosols on the mean, spatial, and temporal distribution of precipitation remains a persistent source of uncertainty in climate research. In particular, absorbing aerosols are known to influence cloud formation and precipitation in ways that are not yet fully understood. On average, warming induced by absorbing aerosols is balanced by reduced latent heating from precipitation, so the atmospheric energy budget constrains mean precipitation. This constraint does not apply to spatial or temporal patterns, making the impact of absorbing aerosols on these aspects more uncertain. A recent idealized study suggests that absorbing aerosols can trigger a transition to episodic precipitation, where rainfall occurs in intense, short-lived events followed by extended dry periods. This transition resembles a previously reported shift under hothouse climate conditions. Specifically, lower tropospheric radiative heating from absorbing aerosols decouples the lower and upper troposphere, suppressing convection for multiple days. During these dry periods, instability builds up until a strong rain event occurs. In this paper, we build on this previous work to further investigate the effects of absorbing aerosols on precipitation characteristics and extremes. We conduct a hierarchy of model simulations that incorporate online aerosol–radiation coupling, the diurnal cycle of solar radiation, convective aggregation in a large-domain, and large-scale tropical circulation in a mock Walker simulation. Our results show that the transition to episodic precipitation events under absorbing aerosol perturbation is robust and occurs across all model configurations. We also examine the role of diurnal solar radiation variations and large-scale circulation in shaping this transition.