Abstract
Suppose X1, X2,..., Xv-1 are iid random variables with distribution F0, and Xv, Xv+1,... are are iid with distributed F1. The change point v is unknown. The problem is to raise an alarm as soon as possible after the distribution changes from F0 to F1 (detect the change), but to avoid false alarms. Pollak found a version of the Shiryayev-Roberts procedure to be asymptotically optimal for the problem of minimizing the average run length to detection over all stopping times which satisfy a given constraint on the rate of false alarms. Here we find that this procedure is strictly optimal for a slight reformulation of the problem he considered. Explicit formulas are developed for the calculation of the average run length (both before and after the change) for the optimal stopping time.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 2117-2126 |
| Number of pages | 10 |
| Journal | Annals of Statistics |
| Volume | 25 |
| Issue number | 5 |
| DOIs | |
| State | Published - Oct 1997 |
Keywords
- Bayes rule
- Control charts
- Minimax rule
- Quality control
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