TY - JOUR
T1 - A rule of thumb
T2 - Run lengths to false alarm of many types of control charts run in parallel on dependent streams are asymptotically independent
AU - Pollak, Moshe
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© Institute of Mathematical Statistics, 2021
PY - 2021/2
Y1 - 2021/2
N2 - Consider a process that produces a series of independent identically distributed vectors. A change in an underlying state may become manifest in a modification of one or more of the marginal distributions. Often, the dependence structure between coordinates is unknown, impeding surveillance based on the joint distribution. A popular approach is to construct control charts for each coordinate separately and raise an alarm the first time any (or some) of the control charts signals. The difficulty is obtaining an expression for the overall average run length to false alarm (ARL2FA). We argue that despite the dependence structure, when the process is in control, for large ARLs to false alarm, run lengths of many types of control charts run in parallel are asymptotically independent. Furthermore, often, in-control run lengths are asymptotically exponentially distributed, enabling uncomplicated asymptotic expressions for the ARL2FA. We prove this assertion for certain Cusum and Shiryaev-Roberts-type control charts and illustrate it by simulations.
AB - Consider a process that produces a series of independent identically distributed vectors. A change in an underlying state may become manifest in a modification of one or more of the marginal distributions. Often, the dependence structure between coordinates is unknown, impeding surveillance based on the joint distribution. A popular approach is to construct control charts for each coordinate separately and raise an alarm the first time any (or some) of the control charts signals. The difficulty is obtaining an expression for the overall average run length to false alarm (ARL2FA). We argue that despite the dependence structure, when the process is in control, for large ARLs to false alarm, run lengths of many types of control charts run in parallel are asymptotically independent. Furthermore, often, in-control run lengths are asymptotically exponentially distributed, enabling uncomplicated asymptotic expressions for the ARL2FA. We prove this assertion for certain Cusum and Shiryaev-Roberts-type control charts and illustrate it by simulations.
KW - Average run length
KW - Cusum
KW - Exponential distribution
KW - P-value
KW - Shiryaev-Roberts
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85101225197&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1214/20-aos1968
DO - 10.1214/20-aos1968
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AN - SCOPUS:85101225197
SN - 0090-5364
VL - 49
SP - 557
EP - 567
JO - Annals of Statistics
JF - Annals of Statistics
IS - 1
ER -