Affective forecasting in elections: A socio-communicative perspective

Keren Tenenboim-Weinblatt*, Christian Baden, Tali Aharoni, Maximilian Overbeck

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

6 Scopus citations


In orienting themselves to the future, people form expectations not only on what will happen but also on how they will feel about possible future occurrences. So far, such affective forecasting - the prediction of future feelings - has been studied mainly from a psychological perspective. This study aims to show the importance of a socio-communicative perspective for understanding the predictors, manifestations, and consequences of affective forecasting, especially when collective futures are at stake. Using the case study of the 2019-2021 Israeli elections and a combination of a 12-wave survey and 25 focus groups, we show how political affective forecasts are associated with socio-communicative factors, are used in social interactions, and have consequences for political polarization and participation. We conclude with a discussion of the implications of our findings for future research on affective forecasting in communication studies.

Original languageAmerican English
Pages (from-to)553-566
Number of pages14
JournalHuman Communication Research
Issue number4
StatePublished - 1 Oct 2022

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
The study is part of the PROFECI research project (Mediating the Future: The Social Dynamics of Public Projections, http:// We are indebted to Nidaa Nassar, Aysha Agbarya, Moran Avital, Naama Weiss Yaniv, Ohad Ufaz, Yaara Abado, Dvora Newman, and Hila Yerushalmi for their research assistance, and to Sharon Ben-Aryeh and Bat sheva Hass for their coordination of the project. We also wish to thank Eedan Amit-Danhi, four anonymous reviewers, Associate Editor Sophie Lecheler, and Editor-in-Chief Yariv Tsfati for their insightful comments on this manuscript throughout the review process. ERC Starting Grant 802990.

Publisher Copyright:
© 2022 The Author(s). Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of International Communication Association.


  • Affect
  • Electoral Projections
  • Polarization
  • Political Communication
  • Social Identity


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