"After me, the deluge": Uncertainty and water policy in Israel

Israel's water system is characterized by a very high degree of uncertainty, emanating from the semi-arid climatic position, and the dynamic population growth. The agricultural sector dominates water policy making, thereby giving preference to the sector that consumes roughly 70% of the available resources. Water for agriculture is priced too low, resulting in its inefficient use. This paper seeks to explain water policy making in Israel, as an attempt to cope with uncertainty. We show that the pattern has been to shift the burden of uncertainty from present consumers to future consumers. This pattern is explained by the following factors: the high vulnerability of Israel's water system, due to uncertainty in both supply and demand; the inclination of elected policy makers to give preference to short-term objectives over long-term objectives; the acceptance of uncertainty as a constraint rather than a policy variable; and the acceptance of a given level of agricultural activity as a permanent constraint.