An Integrated Theory of Hot Spots Patrol Strategy: Implementing Prevention by Scaling Up and Feeding Back

Lawrence W. Sherman; Stephen Williams; Barak Ariel; Lucinda R. Strang; Neil Wain; Molly Slothower; Andre Norton

doi:10.1177/1043986214525082

An Integrated Theory of Hot Spots Patrol Strategy: Implementing Prevention by Scaling Up and Feeding Back

Lawrence W. Sherman, Stephen Williams, Barak Ariel, Lucinda R. Strang, Neil Wain, Molly Slothower, Andre Norton

Institute of Criminology

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

44 Scopus citations

Abstract

In late 2013, Trinidad and Tobago Police Service (TTPS) conducted the first randomized experiment ever to test a hot spots patrol strategy (HSPS) across large areas, as distinct from testing extra patrols one hot spot at a time. The HSPS experiment required, and helped to refine, a formal theory of both the causes and effects of directed patrols in hot spots. This article presents an integrated theory of how to implement an HSPS in ways that maximize the preventive effects of patrol on crime. It then describes the HSPS experimental protocol used to test the theory in Trinidad. The key elements of HSPS are scaling up from specific hot spot locations to a district-wide focus on all its hot spots and feeding back to the constables who provide hot spots patrols data on what they have done and with what effect-presented every 2 weeks, at a district-level "COP-stat" meeting with the people actually doing the patrols.

Original language	American English
Pages (from-to)	95-122
Number of pages	28
Journal	Journal of Contemporary Criminal Justice
Volume	30
Issue number	2
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1177/1043986214525082
State	Published - May 2014

Keywords

Displacement
Hotspots
Koper Curve
Patrol Dosage
Residual Deterrence

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.1177/1043986214525082

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title = "An Integrated Theory of Hot Spots Patrol Strategy: Implementing Prevention by Scaling Up and Feeding Back",

abstract = "In late 2013, Trinidad and Tobago Police Service (TTPS) conducted the first randomized experiment ever to test a hot spots patrol strategy (HSPS) across large areas, as distinct from testing extra patrols one hot spot at a time. The HSPS experiment required, and helped to refine, a formal theory of both the causes and effects of directed patrols in hot spots. This article presents an integrated theory of how to implement an HSPS in ways that maximize the preventive effects of patrol on crime. It then describes the HSPS experimental protocol used to test the theory in Trinidad. The key elements of HSPS are scaling up from specific hot spot locations to a district-wide focus on all its hot spots and feeding back to the constables who provide hot spots patrols data on what they have done and with what effect-presented every 2 weeks, at a district-level {"}COP-stat{"} meeting with the people actually doing the patrols.",

keywords = "Displacement, Hotspots, Koper Curve, Patrol Dosage, Residual Deterrence",

author = "Sherman, {Lawrence W.} and Stephen Williams and Barak Ariel and Strang, {Lucinda R.} and Neil Wain and Molly Slothower and Andre Norton",

year = "2014",

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AU - Sherman, Lawrence W.

AU - Williams, Stephen

AU - Ariel, Barak

AU - Strang, Lucinda R.

AU - Wain, Neil

AU - Slothower, Molly

AU - Norton, Andre

PY - 2014/5

Y1 - 2014/5

N2 - In late 2013, Trinidad and Tobago Police Service (TTPS) conducted the first randomized experiment ever to test a hot spots patrol strategy (HSPS) across large areas, as distinct from testing extra patrols one hot spot at a time. The HSPS experiment required, and helped to refine, a formal theory of both the causes and effects of directed patrols in hot spots. This article presents an integrated theory of how to implement an HSPS in ways that maximize the preventive effects of patrol on crime. It then describes the HSPS experimental protocol used to test the theory in Trinidad. The key elements of HSPS are scaling up from specific hot spot locations to a district-wide focus on all its hot spots and feeding back to the constables who provide hot spots patrols data on what they have done and with what effect-presented every 2 weeks, at a district-level "COP-stat" meeting with the people actually doing the patrols.

AB - In late 2013, Trinidad and Tobago Police Service (TTPS) conducted the first randomized experiment ever to test a hot spots patrol strategy (HSPS) across large areas, as distinct from testing extra patrols one hot spot at a time. The HSPS experiment required, and helped to refine, a formal theory of both the causes and effects of directed patrols in hot spots. This article presents an integrated theory of how to implement an HSPS in ways that maximize the preventive effects of patrol on crime. It then describes the HSPS experimental protocol used to test the theory in Trinidad. The key elements of HSPS are scaling up from specific hot spot locations to a district-wide focus on all its hot spots and feeding back to the constables who provide hot spots patrols data on what they have done and with what effect-presented every 2 weeks, at a district-level "COP-stat" meeting with the people actually doing the patrols.

KW - Displacement

KW - Hotspots

KW - Koper Curve

KW - Patrol Dosage

KW - Residual Deterrence

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An Integrated Theory of Hot Spots Patrol Strategy: Implementing Prevention by Scaling Up and Feeding Back

Abstract

Keywords

UN SDGs

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