Abstract
What is the impact of uncommon but notable violent acts on conflict dynamics? We analyze the impact of the murder of a Palestinian child on the broader dynamics of Israeli-Palestinian violence in Jerusalem. By using novel micro-level event data and utilizing Discrete Fourier Transform and Bayesian Poisson Change Point Analysis, we compare the impact of the murder to that of other lethal but more typical Israeli-Palestinian events. We demonstrate that the murder had a large and durable impact on the average number of daily riots in Jerusalem, whereas the other events caused smaller, short-term effects. We demonstrate that scholars should devote more attention to the analysis of atypical violent acts and indicate a set of tools for conducting such analyses.
Original language | English |
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Pages (from-to) | 399-406 |
Number of pages | 8 |
Journal | Political Science Research and Methods |
Volume | 12 |
Issue number | 2 |
DOIs | |
State | Published - 1 Apr 2024 |
Bibliographical note
Publisher Copyright:© The Author(s), 2022.
Keywords
- Bayesian
- time series models