Atypical violence and conflict dynamics: Evidence from Jerusalem

Chagai M. Weiss, Neal Tsur, Dan Miodownik, Yonatan Lupu*, Evgeny Finkel

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

What is the impact of uncommon but notable violent acts on conflict dynamics? We analyze the impact of the murder of a Palestinian child on the broader dynamics of Israeli-Palestinian violence in Jerusalem. By using novel micro-level event data and utilizing Discrete Fourier Transform and Bayesian Poisson Change Point Analysis, we compare the impact of the murder to that of other lethal but more typical Israeli-Palestinian events. We demonstrate that the murder had a large and durable impact on the average number of daily riots in Jerusalem, whereas the other events caused smaller, short-term effects. We demonstrate that scholars should devote more attention to the analysis of atypical violent acts and indicate a set of tools for conducting such analyses.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)399-406
Number of pages8
JournalPolitical Science Research and Methods
Volume12
Issue number2
DOIs
StatePublished - 1 Apr 2024

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© The Author(s), 2022.

Keywords

  • Bayesian
  • time series models

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