Atypical violence and conflict dynamics: Evidence from Jerusalem

Chagai M. Weiss; Neal Tsur; Dan Miodownik; Yonatan Lupu; Evgeny Finkel

doi:10.1017/psrm.2022.39

Atypical violence and conflict dynamics: Evidence from Jerusalem

Chagai M. Weiss, Neal Tsur, Dan Miodownik, Yonatan Lupu^*, Evgeny Finkel

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

1 Scopus citations

Abstract

What is the impact of uncommon but notable violent acts on conflict dynamics? We analyze the impact of the murder of a Palestinian child on the broader dynamics of Israeli-Palestinian violence in Jerusalem. By using novel micro-level event data and utilizing Discrete Fourier Transform and Bayesian Poisson Change Point Analysis, we compare the impact of the murder to that of other lethal but more typical Israeli-Palestinian events. We demonstrate that the murder had a large and durable impact on the average number of daily riots in Jerusalem, whereas the other events caused smaller, short-term effects. We demonstrate that scholars should devote more attention to the analysis of atypical violent acts and indicate a set of tools for conducting such analyses.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	399-406
Number of pages	8
Journal	Political Science Research and Methods
Volume	12
Issue number	2
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1017/psrm.2022.39
State	Published - 1 Apr 2024

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© The Author(s), 2022.

Keywords

Bayesian
time series models

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10.1017/psrm.2022.39

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title = "Atypical violence and conflict dynamics: Evidence from Jerusalem",

abstract = "What is the impact of uncommon but notable violent acts on conflict dynamics? We analyze the impact of the murder of a Palestinian child on the broader dynamics of Israeli-Palestinian violence in Jerusalem. By using novel micro-level event data and utilizing Discrete Fourier Transform and Bayesian Poisson Change Point Analysis, we compare the impact of the murder to that of other lethal but more typical Israeli-Palestinian events. We demonstrate that the murder had a large and durable impact on the average number of daily riots in Jerusalem, whereas the other events caused smaller, short-term effects. We demonstrate that scholars should devote more attention to the analysis of atypical violent acts and indicate a set of tools for conducting such analyses.",

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N2 - What is the impact of uncommon but notable violent acts on conflict dynamics? We analyze the impact of the murder of a Palestinian child on the broader dynamics of Israeli-Palestinian violence in Jerusalem. By using novel micro-level event data and utilizing Discrete Fourier Transform and Bayesian Poisson Change Point Analysis, we compare the impact of the murder to that of other lethal but more typical Israeli-Palestinian events. We demonstrate that the murder had a large and durable impact on the average number of daily riots in Jerusalem, whereas the other events caused smaller, short-term effects. We demonstrate that scholars should devote more attention to the analysis of atypical violent acts and indicate a set of tools for conducting such analyses.

AB - What is the impact of uncommon but notable violent acts on conflict dynamics? We analyze the impact of the murder of a Palestinian child on the broader dynamics of Israeli-Palestinian violence in Jerusalem. By using novel micro-level event data and utilizing Discrete Fourier Transform and Bayesian Poisson Change Point Analysis, we compare the impact of the murder to that of other lethal but more typical Israeli-Palestinian events. We demonstrate that the murder had a large and durable impact on the average number of daily riots in Jerusalem, whereas the other events caused smaller, short-term effects. We demonstrate that scholars should devote more attention to the analysis of atypical violent acts and indicate a set of tools for conducting such analyses.

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KW - time series models

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ER -

Atypical violence and conflict dynamics: Evidence from Jerusalem

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Keywords

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