TY - JOUR
T1 - Between victory and peace
T2 - Unravelling the paradox of hope in intractable conflicts
AU - Shani, Maor
AU - Kunst, Jonas R.
AU - Anjum, Gulnaz
AU - Obaidi, Milan
AU - Leshem, Oded Adomi
AU - Antonovsky, Roman
AU - van Zalk, Maarten
AU - Halperin, Eran
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2024 The Authors. British Journal of Social Psychology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Psychological Society.
PY - 2024/7
Y1 - 2024/7
N2 - Previous research on group-based hope has predominantly focused on positive intergroup outcomes, such as peace and harmony. In this paper, we demonstrate that hope experienced towards group-centric political outcomes, such as a victory in a conflict and defeating the enemy, can be detrimental to peace. In Study 1, conducted among Israeli Jews, hope for victory over the Palestinians was uniquely associated with more support for extreme war policies, whereas hope for peace generally showed the opposite associations. In Study 2, we replicated these results among Muslim Pakistanis regarding the Pakistan–India dispute. Notably, in both Studies 1 and 2, only hope for victory significantly predicted personal violent extremist intentions. In Study 3, conducted with a representative sample of Israeli Jews, we found three latent profiles of hope: victory hopers, peace hopers, and dual hopers (hoping for both peace and victory). Finally, in preregistered Study 4, we longitudinally investigated how hopes for victory and peace changed from a relatively calm period in 2021 to the Israel–Hamas War of 2023, utilizing a Bivariate Latent Change Score analysis. Increases in hope for victory during the highly intense war explained the increase in support for violence. We discuss implications, limitations, and directions for future research.
AB - Previous research on group-based hope has predominantly focused on positive intergroup outcomes, such as peace and harmony. In this paper, we demonstrate that hope experienced towards group-centric political outcomes, such as a victory in a conflict and defeating the enemy, can be detrimental to peace. In Study 1, conducted among Israeli Jews, hope for victory over the Palestinians was uniquely associated with more support for extreme war policies, whereas hope for peace generally showed the opposite associations. In Study 2, we replicated these results among Muslim Pakistanis regarding the Pakistan–India dispute. Notably, in both Studies 1 and 2, only hope for victory significantly predicted personal violent extremist intentions. In Study 3, conducted with a representative sample of Israeli Jews, we found three latent profiles of hope: victory hopers, peace hopers, and dual hopers (hoping for both peace and victory). Finally, in preregistered Study 4, we longitudinally investigated how hopes for victory and peace changed from a relatively calm period in 2021 to the Israel–Hamas War of 2023, utilizing a Bivariate Latent Change Score analysis. Increases in hope for victory during the highly intense war explained the increase in support for violence. We discuss implications, limitations, and directions for future research.
KW - group-based hope
KW - intergroup conflict
KW - intractable conflicts
KW - political extremism
KW - violence
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85185974535&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1111/bjso.12722
DO - 10.1111/bjso.12722
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C2 - 38375955
AN - SCOPUS:85185974535
SN - 0144-6665
VL - 63
SP - 1357
EP - 1384
JO - British Journal of Social Psychology
JF - British Journal of Social Psychology
IS - 3
ER -
