Can the National Fire-Danger Rating System (NFDRS)-1978 of the United States be effective in other regions? Israel as a case study

Background: Effective fire management requires reliable pre-fire risk assessment tools. The United States (US) National Fire-Danger Rating System (NFDRS)-1978 is widely used, yet its applicability in non-US ecosystems remains uncertain. Aims: We retrospectively tested the effectiveness of the Burning Index (BI) in predicting wildfire characteristics in non-US Mediterranean-type ecosystems, using Israel as a case study. Methods: We examined correlations between the BI and wildfire characteristics at multiple temporal scales and developed an enhanced predictive model by integrating the index with vegetation-related and anthropogenic variables. Key results: The BI had stronger correlations with wildfire burned area at coarser temporal scales (monthly and weekly), whereas its correlative utility diminished at finer resolutions (daily and event-based scales). Incorporating additional data – such as live fuel moisture content (LFMC), vegetation continuity and anthropogenic factors – significantly enhanced model performance for burned area predictions, increasing the explained variance up to 50% when arson and military-related wildfires were excluded. In contrast, wildfire duration was not successfully predicted by either BI alone or the multivariable predictive model. Conclusions: The BI’s predictive strength is scale-dependent and limited at fine resolutions. Implications: Our results highlight the importance of accounting for the characteristics of the local fire regime when adapting the NFDRS for non-US ecosystems.