Coastal congestion: Simulating port expansion and land use change under zero-sum conditions

Daniel Felsenstein*, Michal Lichter, Eyal Ashbel

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

13 Scopus citations


This paper examines the displacement effects associated with new land use development in a congested coastal area. A land use micro-simulation model (UrbanSim) and statistical estimation are used to identify the expected future land use impacts arising from the proposed expansion of the Port of Haifa. Maximum and minimum development scenarios are simulated and compared to baseline (business-as-usual) conditions. Simulation outputs refer to future population, employment, residential and non-residential construction for the city of Haifa and its metropolitan area untill the year 2038. A key finding relates to the spatial substitution effects of additional non-residential floor space on residential development throughout the Haifa region. This highlights the zero sum effects of land use change under conditions of congestion. The challenge of efficiently using limited land use resources and balancing development across many competing uses and stakeholders, is stressed.

Original languageAmerican English
Pages (from-to)89-101
Number of pages13
JournalOcean and Coastal Management
Issue numberPB
StatePublished - 1 Nov 2014

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2014 Elsevier Ltd.


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