TY - JOUR
T1 - Coastal congestion
T2 - Simulating port expansion and land use change under zero-sum conditions
AU - Felsenstein, Daniel
AU - Lichter, Michal
AU - Ashbel, Eyal
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2014 Elsevier Ltd.
PY - 2014/11/1
Y1 - 2014/11/1
N2 - This paper examines the displacement effects associated with new land use development in a congested coastal area. A land use micro-simulation model (UrbanSim) and statistical estimation are used to identify the expected future land use impacts arising from the proposed expansion of the Port of Haifa. Maximum and minimum development scenarios are simulated and compared to baseline (business-as-usual) conditions. Simulation outputs refer to future population, employment, residential and non-residential construction for the city of Haifa and its metropolitan area untill the year 2038. A key finding relates to the spatial substitution effects of additional non-residential floor space on residential development throughout the Haifa region. This highlights the zero sum effects of land use change under conditions of congestion. The challenge of efficiently using limited land use resources and balancing development across many competing uses and stakeholders, is stressed.
AB - This paper examines the displacement effects associated with new land use development in a congested coastal area. A land use micro-simulation model (UrbanSim) and statistical estimation are used to identify the expected future land use impacts arising from the proposed expansion of the Port of Haifa. Maximum and minimum development scenarios are simulated and compared to baseline (business-as-usual) conditions. Simulation outputs refer to future population, employment, residential and non-residential construction for the city of Haifa and its metropolitan area untill the year 2038. A key finding relates to the spatial substitution effects of additional non-residential floor space on residential development throughout the Haifa region. This highlights the zero sum effects of land use change under conditions of congestion. The challenge of efficiently using limited land use resources and balancing development across many competing uses and stakeholders, is stressed.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85027951863&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2014.08.001
DO - 10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2014.08.001
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AN - SCOPUS:85027951863
SN - 0964-5691
VL - 101
SP - 89
EP - 101
JO - Ocean and Coastal Management
JF - Ocean and Coastal Management
IS - PB
ER -