Combined Modes of the Northern Stratosphere, Tropical Oceans, and East Asian Spring Rainfall: A Novel Method to Improve Seasonal Forecasts of Precipitation

Jian Rao; Chaim I. Garfinkel; Tongwen Wu; Jing Jia Luo; Yixiong Lu; Min Chu; Qian Lu

doi:10.1029/2022GL101360

Combined Modes of the Northern Stratosphere, Tropical Oceans, and East Asian Spring Rainfall: A Novel Method to Improve Seasonal Forecasts of Precipitation

Jian Rao^*, Chaim I. Garfinkel, Tongwen Wu, Jing Jia Luo, Yixiong Lu, Min Chu, Qian Lu

^*Corresponding author for this work

Fredy & Nadine Herrmann Institute of Earth Sciences

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

1 Scopus citations

Abstract

Seasonal forecasting models have a harder time accurately predicting regional precipitation anomalies in East Asia than the large-scale drivers of these precipitation anomalies. These large-scale drivers include both sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and conditions in the polar stratosphere. A maximum covariance analysis is used to isolate the SST and stratospheric patterns most associated with anomalous East Asian precipitation, which are employed to correct seasonal forecasts by projecting the forecasted stratospheric circulation and SST onto the observed combined modes. The nonuniform predictability of East Asian rainfall in seasonal forecast models is improved after error correction with the observed linkage between the stratosphere–tropical ocean modes and East Asian rainfall. This method should be helpful for improving rainfall forecasts in other regions as well.

Original language	American English
Article number	e2022GL101360
Journal	Geophysical Research Letters
Volume	50
Issue number	1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL101360
State	Published - 16 Jan 2023

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant 42030605 and 42175069), the ISF‐NSFC joint research program (3259/19). The authors thank several agencies for providing their free multiple databases.

Funding Information:
This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant 42030605 and 42175069), the ISF-NSFC joint research program (3259/19). The authors thank several agencies for providing their free multiple databases.

Publisher Copyright:
© 2022. The Authors.

Keywords

East Asian rainfall
combined modes
error correction
seasonal forecast models

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10.1029/2022GL101360

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abstract = "Seasonal forecasting models have a harder time accurately predicting regional precipitation anomalies in East Asia than the large-scale drivers of these precipitation anomalies. These large-scale drivers include both sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and conditions in the polar stratosphere. A maximum covariance analysis is used to isolate the SST and stratospheric patterns most associated with anomalous East Asian precipitation, which are employed to correct seasonal forecasts by projecting the forecasted stratospheric circulation and SST onto the observed combined modes. The nonuniform predictability of East Asian rainfall in seasonal forecast models is improved after error correction with the observed linkage between the stratosphere–tropical ocean modes and East Asian rainfall. This method should be helpful for improving rainfall forecasts in other regions as well.",

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doi = "10.1029/2022GL101360",

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AU - Wu, Tongwen

AU - Luo, Jing Jia

AU - Lu, Yixiong

AU - Chu, Min

AU - Lu, Qian

N1 - Funding Information: This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant 42030605 and 42175069), the ISF‐NSFC joint research program (3259/19). The authors thank several agencies for providing their free multiple databases. Funding Information: This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant 42030605 and 42175069), the ISF-NSFC joint research program (3259/19). The authors thank several agencies for providing their free multiple databases. Publisher Copyright: © 2022. The Authors.

PY - 2023/1/16

Y1 - 2023/1/16

N2 - Seasonal forecasting models have a harder time accurately predicting regional precipitation anomalies in East Asia than the large-scale drivers of these precipitation anomalies. These large-scale drivers include both sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and conditions in the polar stratosphere. A maximum covariance analysis is used to isolate the SST and stratospheric patterns most associated with anomalous East Asian precipitation, which are employed to correct seasonal forecasts by projecting the forecasted stratospheric circulation and SST onto the observed combined modes. The nonuniform predictability of East Asian rainfall in seasonal forecast models is improved after error correction with the observed linkage between the stratosphere–tropical ocean modes and East Asian rainfall. This method should be helpful for improving rainfall forecasts in other regions as well.

AB - Seasonal forecasting models have a harder time accurately predicting regional precipitation anomalies in East Asia than the large-scale drivers of these precipitation anomalies. These large-scale drivers include both sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and conditions in the polar stratosphere. A maximum covariance analysis is used to isolate the SST and stratospheric patterns most associated with anomalous East Asian precipitation, which are employed to correct seasonal forecasts by projecting the forecasted stratospheric circulation and SST onto the observed combined modes. The nonuniform predictability of East Asian rainfall in seasonal forecast models is improved after error correction with the observed linkage between the stratosphere–tropical ocean modes and East Asian rainfall. This method should be helpful for improving rainfall forecasts in other regions as well.

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ER -

Combined Modes of the Northern Stratosphere, Tropical Oceans, and East Asian Spring Rainfall: A Novel Method to Improve Seasonal Forecasts of Precipitation

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