Contemporary Megadrought on Easter Island (Rapa Nui) Since 2010

Since 2010 Easter Island (Rapa Nui) has experienced a severe, decadal-scale megadrought. Observations show that every year from 2010 to 2023 had lower precipitation than the 1979–2009 average. The decline in precipitation aligns with decadal-scale climate shifts: an intensification and westward expansion of the South Pacific Anticyclone toward Rapa Nui, along with a poleward shift of the Southern Hemisphere storm track. Both the trends and interannual variability in these phenomena closely track the hydroclimate of Rapa Nui and explain why fewer storms are reaching the island. We show that these dynamical and aridification trends have likely already exceeded natural variability and that they will continue through the 21st century under an intermediate greenhouse-gas emissions scenario. We attribute approximately 70%–80% of the current megadrought severity to anthropogenic climate change, under which even more severe droughts are projected to occur.