Dealing with "induced migration" in university impact studies

The migration-inducing effect of an institution of higher education is often overlooked in university impact studies. This paper deals with estimating the local economic impacts of a university accounting for the fact that students and staff induced to the area by the presence of the university are unlikely to remain in its absence. It is argued that this is an important aspect of the correct identification of the counterfactual position and a vital component in accurate impact analysis. A case study is presented relating to the short-term impacts of the Northwestern University campus in the city of Evanston, Illinois. The tendency to overstate this impact through the incorrect treatment of induced migration is illustrated. It is also shown that the estimated income and output impacts attributed to the university are very sensitive to changes in the local consumption patterns of migrants.