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Deep convection only temporarily intensified by aerosols

  • Denis Shum
  • , Guy Dagan*
  • , Roni Shpitzer
  • *Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

Whether aerosols invigorate, suppress or have a weak effect on deep convection remains highly debated. Here we investigate how the timescale of aerosol perturbations controls convective responses and show that the apparent invigoration of convection is probably a transient effect. Using cloud-resolving models from a multi-model radiative–convective equilibrium intercomparison project and targeted perturbation experiments, we find that abrupt aerosol increases drive strong convective invigoration, which lasts for about 1 d, but this response vanishes as the environment adjusts and upper-tropospheric warming reduces cloud–environment thermal contrasts. Experiments with oscillating aerosol concentrations confirm this mechanism: rapid aerosol variability can lead to convective invigoration, whereas slow variability yields muted responses. A low-order model further supports the generality of this timescale-dependent framework. These findings highlight that the timescale of aerosol perturbations fundamentally governs their convective impacts—a critical consideration for interpreting both observations and model projections of aerosol–cloud interactions.

Original languageEnglish
JournalNature Geoscience
DOIs
StateAccepted/In press - 2026

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited 2026.

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