TY - JOUR

T1 - Degree Dispersion Increases the Rate of Rare Events in Population Networks

AU - Hindes, Jason

AU - Assaf, Michael

N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2019 American Physical Society. American Physical Society.

PY - 2019/8/9

Y1 - 2019/8/9

N2 - There is great interest in predicting rare and extreme events in complex systems, and in particular, understanding the role of network topology in facilitating such events. In this Letter, we show that degree dispersion - the fact that the number of local connections in networks varies broadly - increases the probability of large, rare fluctuations in population networks generically. We perform explicit calculations for two canonical and distinct classes of rare events: network extinction and switching. When the distance to threshold is held constant, and hence stochastic effects are fairly compared among networks, we show that there is a universal, exponential increase in the rate of rare events proportional to the variance of a network's degree distribution over its mean squared.

AB - There is great interest in predicting rare and extreme events in complex systems, and in particular, understanding the role of network topology in facilitating such events. In this Letter, we show that degree dispersion - the fact that the number of local connections in networks varies broadly - increases the probability of large, rare fluctuations in population networks generically. We perform explicit calculations for two canonical and distinct classes of rare events: network extinction and switching. When the distance to threshold is held constant, and hence stochastic effects are fairly compared among networks, we show that there is a universal, exponential increase in the rate of rare events proportional to the variance of a network's degree distribution over its mean squared.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85070560328&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1103/PhysRevLett.123.068301

DO - 10.1103/PhysRevLett.123.068301

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C2 - 31491193

AN - SCOPUS:85070560328

SN - 0031-9007

VL - 123

JO - Physical Review Letters

JF - Physical Review Letters

IS - 6

M1 - 068301

ER -