Divining Elections: Religious Citizens' Political Projections and Electoral Turnout in Israel and France

Maximilian Overbeck*, Tali Aharoni, Christian Baden, Michael Freedman, Keren Tenenboim-Weinblatt

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review


How do religious citizens' election projections influence voter turnout? While previous studies have demonstrated the significant impact of religious orientation on individuals' general future outlook, little is known about the influence of religion on voters' electoral expectations and how these expectations affect voter turnout. In this paper, we employ a nuanced conceptual framework of election projections and examine the impact of religion on both the affective and probabilistic aspects of citizens' expectations regarding election outcomes. Our analysis draws upon original panel survey data collected in two countries, focusing on the 2021 Israeli general elections and the 2022 French presidential elections. The findings reveal a mobilizing effect of religious citizens' election projections in both Israel and France. Specifically, religious voters tend to have more positive affective forecasts about their projected election outcomes, consequently resulting in increased voter turnout. While affective forecasting plays a significant role in religious citizens' turnout, probabilistic certitude does not have a similar effect. We discuss the contribution and implications of these findings for research on religion and political behavior.

Original languageAmerican English
Article numberedae015
JournalInternational Journal of Public Opinion Research
Issue number2
StatePublished - 2024

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2024 The Author(s). Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The World Association for Public Opinion Research.


Dive into the research topics of 'Divining Elections: Religious Citizens' Political Projections and Electoral Turnout in Israel and France'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this