Don't let me be #misunderstood: Linguistically motivated algorithm for predicting the popularity of textual memes

Oren Tsur, Ari Rappoport

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionpeer-review

13 Scopus citations

Abstract

Prediction of the popularity of online textual snippets gained much attention in recent years. In this paper we investigate some of the factors that contribute to popularity of specific phrases such as Twitter hashtags. We define a new prediction task and propose a linguistically motivated algorithm for accurate prediction of hashtag popularity. Our prediction algorithm successfully models the interplay between various constraints such as the length restriction, typing effort and ease of comprehension. Controlling for network structure and social aspects we get a glimpse into the processes that shape the way we produce language and coin new words. In order to learn the interactions between the constraints we cast the problem as a ranking task. We adapt Gradient Boosted Trees for learning ranking functions in order to predict the hashtags/neologisms to be accepted. Our results outperform several baseline algorithms including SVM-rank, while maintaining higher interpretability, thus our model's prediction power can be used for better crafting of future hashtags.

Original languageAmerican English
Title of host publicationProceedings of the 9th International Conference on Web and Social Media, ICWSM 2015
PublisherAAAI Press
Pages426-435
Number of pages10
ISBN (Electronic)9781577357339
StatePublished - 2015
Event9th International Conference on Web and Social Media, ICWSM 2015 - Oxford, United Kingdom
Duration: 26 May 201529 May 2015

Publication series

NameProceedings of the 9th International Conference on Web and Social Media, ICWSM 2015

Conference

Conference9th International Conference on Web and Social Media, ICWSM 2015
Country/TerritoryUnited Kingdom
CityOxford
Period26/05/1529/05/15

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© Copyright 2015, Association for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence. All rights reserved.

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