Exploring the direct and indirect impacts of climate variability on armed conflict in South Asia

Xiaolan Xie; Mengmeng Hao; Fangyu Ding; David Helman; Jürgen Scheffran; Qian Wang; Quansheng Ge; Dong Jiang

doi:10.1016/j.isci.2022.105258

Exploring the direct and indirect impacts of climate variability on armed conflict in South Asia

Xiaolan Xie, Mengmeng Hao, Fangyu Ding^*, David Helman, Jürgen Scheffran, Qian Wang, Quansheng Ge^*, Dong Jiang^*

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

Although numerous studies have examined the effects of climate variability on armed conflict, the complexity of these linkages requires deeper understanding to assess the causes and effects. Here, we assembled an extensive database of armed conflict, climate, and non-climate data for South Asia. We used structural equation modeling to quantify both the direct and indirect impacts of climate variability on armed conflict. We found that precipitation impacts armed conflict via direct and indirect effects which are contradictory in sign. Temperature affects armed conflict only through a direct path, while indirect effects were insignificant. Yet, an in-depth analysis of indirect effects showed that the net impact is weak due to two strong contradictory effects offsetting each other. Our findings illustrate the complex link between climate variability and armed conflict, highlighting the importance of a detailed analysis of South Asia's underlying mechanisms at the regional scale.

Original language	American English
Article number	105258
Journal	iScience
Volume	25
Issue number	11
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isci.2022.105258
State	Published - 18 Nov 2022

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
We sincerely thank Halvard Buhaug, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Tian Ma, Yushu Qian, and Shuai Chen for providing valuable suggestions. This work was financially supported by the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences ( XDA19040305 ), the National Natural Science Foundation of China ( 42001238 and 42201497 ), and the Wellcome Trust (220211). For the purpose of Open Access, the author has applied a CC BY public copyright license to any Author Accepted Manuscript version arising from this submission One of the researchers (J.S.) acknowledges the contribution of this research to the CLICCS Cluster of Excellence funded by the German Research Foundation (DFG)

Funding Information:
We sincerely thank Halvard Buhaug, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Tian Ma, Yushu Qian, and Shuai Chen for providing valuable suggestions. This work was financially supported by the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (XDA19040305), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (42001238 and 42201497), and the Wellcome Trust (220211). For the purpose of Open Access, the author has applied a CC BY public copyright license to any Author Accepted Manuscript version arising from this submission One of the researchers (J.S.) acknowledges the contribution of this research to the CLICCS Cluster of Excellence funded by the German Research Foundation (DFG), D.J. F.Y.D. and Q.S.G. designed the research; X.L.X. F.Y.D. D.J. and M.M.H. performed the research; X.L.X. F.Y.D. D.J. and M.M.H. analyzed the data; X.L.X. F.Y.D. D.J. and M.M.H. wrote the first draft of the paper; D.H. J.S. Q.W. and Q.S.G. gave useful edits, comments, and suggestions to this work. All authors reviewed and approved the final version of the manuscript. The authors declare no competing interests.

Publisher Copyright:
© 2022 The Author(s)

Keywords

Environmental event
Global change
Political science
Sociology

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.1016/j.isci.2022.105258

Cite this

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title = "Exploring the direct and indirect impacts of climate variability on armed conflict in South Asia",

abstract = "Although numerous studies have examined the effects of climate variability on armed conflict, the complexity of these linkages requires deeper understanding to assess the causes and effects. Here, we assembled an extensive database of armed conflict, climate, and non-climate data for South Asia. We used structural equation modeling to quantify both the direct and indirect impacts of climate variability on armed conflict. We found that precipitation impacts armed conflict via direct and indirect effects which are contradictory in sign. Temperature affects armed conflict only through a direct path, while indirect effects were insignificant. Yet, an in-depth analysis of indirect effects showed that the net impact is weak due to two strong contradictory effects offsetting each other. Our findings illustrate the complex link between climate variability and armed conflict, highlighting the importance of a detailed analysis of South Asia's underlying mechanisms at the regional scale.",

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note = "Funding Information: We sincerely thank Halvard Buhaug, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Tian Ma, Yushu Qian, and Shuai Chen for providing valuable suggestions. This work was financially supported by the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences ( XDA19040305 ), the National Natural Science Foundation of China ( 42001238 and 42201497 ), and the Wellcome Trust (220211). For the purpose of Open Access, the author has applied a CC BY public copyright license to any Author Accepted Manuscript version arising from this submission One of the researchers (J.S.) acknowledges the contribution of this research to the CLICCS Cluster of Excellence funded by the German Research Foundation (DFG) Funding Information: We sincerely thank Halvard Buhaug, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Tian Ma, Yushu Qian, and Shuai Chen for providing valuable suggestions. This work was financially supported by the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (XDA19040305), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (42001238 and 42201497), and the Wellcome Trust (220211). For the purpose of Open Access, the author has applied a CC BY public copyright license to any Author Accepted Manuscript version arising from this submission One of the researchers (J.S.) acknowledges the contribution of this research to the CLICCS Cluster of Excellence funded by the German Research Foundation (DFG), D.J. F.Y.D. and Q.S.G. designed the research; X.L.X. F.Y.D. D.J. and M.M.H. performed the research; X.L.X. F.Y.D. D.J. and M.M.H. analyzed the data; X.L.X. F.Y.D. D.J. and M.M.H. wrote the first draft of the paper; D.H. J.S. Q.W. and Q.S.G. gave useful edits, comments, and suggestions to this work. All authors reviewed and approved the final version of the manuscript. The authors declare no competing interests. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2022 The Author(s)",

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AU - Scheffran, Jürgen

AU - Wang, Qian

AU - Ge, Quansheng

AU - Jiang, Dong

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AB - Although numerous studies have examined the effects of climate variability on armed conflict, the complexity of these linkages requires deeper understanding to assess the causes and effects. Here, we assembled an extensive database of armed conflict, climate, and non-climate data for South Asia. We used structural equation modeling to quantify both the direct and indirect impacts of climate variability on armed conflict. We found that precipitation impacts armed conflict via direct and indirect effects which are contradictory in sign. Temperature affects armed conflict only through a direct path, while indirect effects were insignificant. Yet, an in-depth analysis of indirect effects showed that the net impact is weak due to two strong contradictory effects offsetting each other. Our findings illustrate the complex link between climate variability and armed conflict, highlighting the importance of a detailed analysis of South Asia's underlying mechanisms at the regional scale.

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Exploring the direct and indirect impacts of climate variability on armed conflict in South Asia

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Keywords

UN SDGs

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