Exploring the worldwide impact of COVID-19 on conflict risk under climate change

Xiaolan Xie; Mengmeng Hao; Fangyu Ding; Tobias Ide; David Helman; Jürgen Scheffran; Qian Wang; Yushu Qian; Shuai Chen; Jiajie Wu; Tian Ma; Quansheng Ge; Dong Jiang

doi:10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e17182

Exploring the worldwide impact of COVID-19 on conflict risk under climate change

Xiaolan Xie
, Mengmeng Hao
, Fangyu Ding^*
, Tobias Ide
, David Helman
, Jürgen Scheffran
, Qian Wang
, Yushu Qian
, Shuai Chen
, Jiajie Wu
, Tian Ma
, Quansheng Ge^*
, Dong Jiang^*

^*Corresponding author for this work

Department of Soil and Water Sciences

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

2 Scopus citations

Abstract

Objectives: Understand whether and how the COVID-19 pandemic affects the risk of different types of conflict worldwide in the context of climate change. Methodology: Based on the database of armed conflict, COVID-19, detailed climate, and non-climate data covering the period 2020–2021, we applied Structural Equation Modeling specifically to reorganize the links between climate, COVID-19, and conflict risk. Moreover, we used the Boosted Regression Tree method to simulate conflict risk under the influence of multiple factors. Findings: The transmission risk of COVID-19 seems to decrease as the temperature rises. Additionally, COVID-19 has a substantial worldwide impact on conflict risk, albeit regional and conflict risk variations exist. Moreover, when testing a one-month lagged effect, we find consistency across regions, indicating a positive influence of COVID-19 on demonstrations (protests and riots) and a negative relationship with non-state and violent conflict risk. Conclusion: COVID-19 has a complex effect on conflict risk worldwide under climate change. Implications: Laying the theoretical foundation of how COVID-19 affects conflict risk and providing some inspiration for the implementation of relevant policies.

Original language	English
Article number	e17182
Journal	Heliyon
Volume	9
Issue number	6
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e17182
State	Published - Jun 2023

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2023 The Authors

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 13 Climate Action
SDG 16 Peace, Justice and Strong Institutions

Keywords

Boosted regression trees
COVID-19
Causal link
Conflict risk
Structural equation model

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10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e17182

Cite this

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title = "Exploring the worldwide impact of COVID-19 on conflict risk under climate change",

abstract = "Objectives: Understand whether and how the COVID-19 pandemic affects the risk of different types of conflict worldwide in the context of climate change. Methodology: Based on the database of armed conflict, COVID-19, detailed climate, and non-climate data covering the period 2020–2021, we applied Structural Equation Modeling specifically to reorganize the links between climate, COVID-19, and conflict risk. Moreover, we used the Boosted Regression Tree method to simulate conflict risk under the influence of multiple factors. Findings: The transmission risk of COVID-19 seems to decrease as the temperature rises. Additionally, COVID-19 has a substantial worldwide impact on conflict risk, albeit regional and conflict risk variations exist. Moreover, when testing a one-month lagged effect, we find consistency across regions, indicating a positive influence of COVID-19 on demonstrations (protests and riots) and a negative relationship with non-state and violent conflict risk. Conclusion: COVID-19 has a complex effect on conflict risk worldwide under climate change. Implications: Laying the theoretical foundation of how COVID-19 affects conflict risk and providing some inspiration for the implementation of relevant policies.",

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year = "2023",

month = jun,

doi = "10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e17182",

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AU - Helman, David

AU - Scheffran, Jürgen

AU - Wang, Qian

AU - Qian, Yushu

AU - Chen, Shuai

AU - Wu, Jiajie

AU - Ma, Tian

AU - Ge, Quansheng

AU - Jiang, Dong

PY - 2023/6

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AB - Objectives: Understand whether and how the COVID-19 pandemic affects the risk of different types of conflict worldwide in the context of climate change. Methodology: Based on the database of armed conflict, COVID-19, detailed climate, and non-climate data covering the period 2020–2021, we applied Structural Equation Modeling specifically to reorganize the links between climate, COVID-19, and conflict risk. Moreover, we used the Boosted Regression Tree method to simulate conflict risk under the influence of multiple factors. Findings: The transmission risk of COVID-19 seems to decrease as the temperature rises. Additionally, COVID-19 has a substantial worldwide impact on conflict risk, albeit regional and conflict risk variations exist. Moreover, when testing a one-month lagged effect, we find consistency across regions, indicating a positive influence of COVID-19 on demonstrations (protests and riots) and a negative relationship with non-state and violent conflict risk. Conclusion: COVID-19 has a complex effect on conflict risk worldwide under climate change. Implications: Laying the theoretical foundation of how COVID-19 affects conflict risk and providing some inspiration for the implementation of relevant policies.

KW - Boosted regression trees

KW - COVID-19

KW - Causal link

KW - Conflict risk

KW - Structural equation model

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Exploring the worldwide impact of COVID-19 on conflict risk under climate change

Abstract

Bibliographical note

UN SDGs

Keywords

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