Forecasting plant migration rates: Managing uncertainty for risk assessment

S. I. Higgins*, J. S. Clark, R. Nathan, T. Hovestadt, F. Schurr, J. M.V. Fragoso, M. R. Aguiar, E. Ribbens, S. Lavorel

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalReview articlepeer-review

148 Scopus citations


1. Anthropogenic changes in the global climate are shifting the potential ranges of many plant species. 2. Changing climates will allow some species the opportunity to expand their range, others may experience a contraction in their potential range, while the current and future ranges of some species may not overlap. Our capacity to generalize about the threat these range shifts pose to plant diversity is limited by many sources of uncertainty. 3. In this paper we summarize sources of uncertainty for migration forecasts and suggest a research protocol for making forecasts in the context of uncertainty.

Original languageAmerican English
Pages (from-to)341-347
Number of pages7
JournalJournal of Ecology
Issue number3
StatePublished - Jun 2003
Externally publishedYes


  • Climate change
  • Long-distance dispersal
  • Range shift
  • Seed dispersal
  • Spread rate


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