Global expansion of the sensitive aerosol-limited marine cloud regime under emission reductions

Xiao Han; Wenxiang Shen; Minghuai Wang; Yannian Zhu; Yichuan Wang; Jihu Liu; Daniel Rosenfeld; Hao Wang

doi:10.1126/sciadv.aef9665

Global expansion of the sensitive aerosol-limited marine cloud regime under emission reductions

Xiao Han
, Wenxiang Shen
, Minghuai Wang^*
, Yannian Zhu
, Yichuan Wang^*
, Jihu Liu
, Daniel Rosenfeld
, Hao Wang

^*Corresponding author for this work

Fredy & Nadine Herrmann Institute of Earth Sciences

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

Aerosol-cloud interactions (ACIs) are fundamentally nonlinear, with their strongest climatic effects emerging where cloud properties are highly sensitive to aerosol changes-the aerosol-limited regime. Quantifying this regime's evolution is therefore critical for constraining uncertainties in climate forcing and future projections. By integrating satellite observations with climate model simulations, we map this regime globally and track its recent change. We find it expanded by 4.8% per decade over the past 20 years, primarily due to a sharp increase (∼14.7% per decade) in the Northern Hemisphere driven by anthropogenic emission reductions. Under a strong emission reduction pathway, its frequency is projected to double or triple in key ocean regions. This systematic shift pushes marine clouds into a state of heightened aerosol sensitivity, thereby amplifying the cloud-mediated radiative response to aerosol changes. Our findings underscore the need to account for this evolving sensitivity in climate projections.

Original language	English
Article number	eaef9665
Pages (from-to)	1-9
Number of pages	9
Journal	Science advances
Volume	12
Issue number	28
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aef9665
State	Published - 8 Jul 2026

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
Copyright © 2026 the Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. Distributed under A Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0 (CC BY).

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This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.1126/sciadv.aef9665

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title = "Global expansion of the sensitive aerosol-limited marine cloud regime under emission reductions",

abstract = "Aerosol-cloud interactions (ACIs) are fundamentally nonlinear, with their strongest climatic effects emerging where cloud properties are highly sensitive to aerosol changes-the aerosol-limited regime. Quantifying this regime's evolution is therefore critical for constraining uncertainties in climate forcing and future projections. By integrating satellite observations with climate model simulations, we map this regime globally and track its recent change. We find it expanded by 4.8\% per decade over the past 20 years, primarily due to a sharp increase (∼14.7\% per decade) in the Northern Hemisphere driven by anthropogenic emission reductions. Under a strong emission reduction pathway, its frequency is projected to double or triple in key ocean regions. This systematic shift pushes marine clouds into a state of heightened aerosol sensitivity, thereby amplifying the cloud-mediated radiative response to aerosol changes. Our findings underscore the need to account for this evolving sensitivity in climate projections.",

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AU - Han, Xiao

AU - Shen, Wenxiang

AU - Wang, Minghuai

AU - Zhu, Yannian

AU - Wang, Yichuan

AU - Liu, Jihu

AU - Rosenfeld, Daniel

AU - Wang, Hao

N1 - Publisher Copyright: Copyright © 2026 the Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. Distributed under A Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0 (CC BY).

PY - 2026/7/8

Y1 - 2026/7/8

N2 - Aerosol-cloud interactions (ACIs) are fundamentally nonlinear, with their strongest climatic effects emerging where cloud properties are highly sensitive to aerosol changes-the aerosol-limited regime. Quantifying this regime's evolution is therefore critical for constraining uncertainties in climate forcing and future projections. By integrating satellite observations with climate model simulations, we map this regime globally and track its recent change. We find it expanded by 4.8% per decade over the past 20 years, primarily due to a sharp increase (∼14.7% per decade) in the Northern Hemisphere driven by anthropogenic emission reductions. Under a strong emission reduction pathway, its frequency is projected to double or triple in key ocean regions. This systematic shift pushes marine clouds into a state of heightened aerosol sensitivity, thereby amplifying the cloud-mediated radiative response to aerosol changes. Our findings underscore the need to account for this evolving sensitivity in climate projections.

AB - Aerosol-cloud interactions (ACIs) are fundamentally nonlinear, with their strongest climatic effects emerging where cloud properties are highly sensitive to aerosol changes-the aerosol-limited regime. Quantifying this regime's evolution is therefore critical for constraining uncertainties in climate forcing and future projections. By integrating satellite observations with climate model simulations, we map this regime globally and track its recent change. We find it expanded by 4.8% per decade over the past 20 years, primarily due to a sharp increase (∼14.7% per decade) in the Northern Hemisphere driven by anthropogenic emission reductions. Under a strong emission reduction pathway, its frequency is projected to double or triple in key ocean regions. This systematic shift pushes marine clouds into a state of heightened aerosol sensitivity, thereby amplifying the cloud-mediated radiative response to aerosol changes. Our findings underscore the need to account for this evolving sensitivity in climate projections.

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Global expansion of the sensitive aerosol-limited marine cloud regime under emission reductions

Abstract

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UN SDGs

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