Abstract
A method is proposed for forecasting tropical cyclone intensity with the aid of an axially symmetric numerical model. The method is based on the use of the principle of the 'self-trained model'. As the parameter which must be adjusted the numerical model uses the coefficient of horizontal turbulence. It is calculated so that in the preforecast time interval the pressure in the model cyclone is as close as possible to the actual pressure. The calculation is based on the theory of experiment planning. The forecast is made both according to the obtained regression equation and also according to the numerical model. Presented are the results of forecasts of the evolution of 10 tropical cyclones in the period of their life cycle, which testify to the effectiveness of the method.
| Original language | English |
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| Pages (from-to) | 51-57 |
| Number of pages | 7 |
| Journal | Soviet meteorology and hydrology |
| Issue number | 6 |
| State | Published - 1987 |