Impact of Parameterized Convection on the Storm Track and Near-Surface Jet Response to Global Warming: Implications for Mechanisms of the Future Poleward Shift

Chaim I. Garfinkel*, Benny Keller, Orli Lachmy, Ian White, Edwin P. Gerber, Martin Jucker, Ori Adam

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

While a poleward shift of the near-surface jet and storm track in response to increased greenhouse gases appears to be robust, the magnitude of this change is uncertain and differs across models, and the mechanisms for this change are poorly constrained. An intermediate complexity GCM is used in this study to explore the factors governing the magnitude of the poleward shift and the mechanisms involved. The degree to which parameterized subgrid-scale convection is inhibited has a leading-order effect on the poleward shift, with a simulation with more convection (and less large-scale precipitation) simulating a significantly weaker shift, and eventually no shift at all if convection is strongly preferred over large-scale precipitation. Many of the physical processes proposed to drive the poleward shift are equally active in all simulations (even those with no poleward shift). Hence, we can conclude that these mechanisms are not of leading-order significance for the poleward shift in any of the simulations. The thermodynamic budget, however, provides useful insight into differences in the jet and storm track response among the simulations. It helps identify midlatitude moisture and latent heat release as a crucial differentiator. These results have implications for intermodel spread in the jet, hydrological cycle, and storm track response to increased greenhouse gases in intermodel comparison projects.

Original languageAmerican English
Pages (from-to)2541-2564
Number of pages24
JournalJournal of Climate
Volume37
Issue number8
DOIs
StatePublished - 15 Apr 2024

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2024 American Meteorological Society.

Keywords

  • Climate change
  • Climate models
  • Convective storms/systems
  • Jets
  • Storm tracks

Fingerprint

Dive into the research topics of 'Impact of Parameterized Convection on the Storm Track and Near-Surface Jet Response to Global Warming: Implications for Mechanisms of the Future Poleward Shift'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this