Implications of China's future bride shortage for the geographical distribution and social protection needs of never-married men

Ethan Sharygin; Avraham Ebenstein; Monica Das Gupta

doi:10.1080/00324728.2012.723893

Implications of China's future bride shortage for the geographical distribution and social protection needs of never-married men

Ethan Sharygin^*, Avraham Ebenstein, Monica Das Gupta

^*Corresponding author for this work

Department of Environmental Economics and Management

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

30 Scopus citations

Abstract

Because sex ratios at birth have risen sharply in China in recent decades, an increasing proportion of men will be unable to find a bride, and will face old age without the support of a wife and children. We project the proportions of never-married men and their geographical distribution in China in the coming decades. Our projections assume that two tendencies in current marriage patterns will persist: that women will continue to migrate to wealthier areas and to prefer men with better prospects. We find that, by 2030, more than 20 per cent of men in China aged 30-39 will never have married, and that the proportion will be especially high among poor men in low-income provinces that are least able to provide social protection programmes. The projected geographic concentration of bachelors could be socially disruptive, and the results suggest a need to expand the coverage and central financing of social protection programmes.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	39-59
Number of pages	21
Journal	Population Studies
Volume	67
Issue number	1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2012.723893
State	Published - Mar 2013

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
2 The authors thank the Hewlett Foundation for grant support through Trust Fund TF070424 given to the World Bank. They also gratefully acknowledge valuable feed-back from the following: Adam Wagstaff, Ardo Hansson, Philip O’Keefe, Junjian Yi, and other participants in the Chinese Economists’ Association Conference, Xiamen, June 2010; participants in the Population-Poverty Re-search Network’s Conference at Cape Town, January 2010; participants in a seminar at the Population Council, New York in February 2010; and participants in the Population Association of America’s annual meeting, April 2011. The authors also thank Michael Freedman, Joan Feng, Alison Flamm, Aviad Glick, and Susan Schwartz for excellent research assistance. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and should not be attributed to the World Bank or any affiliated organization or member country.

Keywords

China
marriage market
missing girls
never-married men
old-age support
sex-selective abortion

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

Access to Document

10.1080/00324728.2012.723893

Cite this

@article{66042a8914cf4c449a0f52756debb260,

title = "Implications of China's future bride shortage for the geographical distribution and social protection needs of never-married men",

abstract = "Because sex ratios at birth have risen sharply in China in recent decades, an increasing proportion of men will be unable to find a bride, and will face old age without the support of a wife and children. We project the proportions of never-married men and their geographical distribution in China in the coming decades. Our projections assume that two tendencies in current marriage patterns will persist: that women will continue to migrate to wealthier areas and to prefer men with better prospects. We find that, by 2030, more than 20 per cent of men in China aged 30-39 will never have married, and that the proportion will be especially high among poor men in low-income provinces that are least able to provide social protection programmes. The projected geographic concentration of bachelors could be socially disruptive, and the results suggest a need to expand the coverage and central financing of social protection programmes.",

keywords = "China, marriage market, missing girls, never-married men, old-age support, sex-selective abortion",

author = "Ethan Sharygin and Avraham Ebenstein and {Das Gupta}, Monica",

note = "Funding Information: 2 The authors thank the Hewlett Foundation for grant support through Trust Fund TF070424 given to the World Bank. They also gratefully acknowledge valuable feed-back from the following: Adam Wagstaff, Ardo Hansson, Philip O{\textquoteright}Keefe, Junjian Yi, and other participants in the Chinese Economists{\textquoteright} Association Conference, Xiamen, June 2010; participants in the Population-Poverty Re-search Network{\textquoteright}s Conference at Cape Town, January 2010; participants in a seminar at the Population Council, New York in February 2010; and participants in the Population Association of America{\textquoteright}s annual meeting, April 2011. The authors also thank Michael Freedman, Joan Feng, Alison Flamm, Aviad Glick, and Susan Schwartz for excellent research assistance. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and should not be attributed to the World Bank or any affiliated organization or member country.",

year = "2013",

month = mar,

doi = "10.1080/00324728.2012.723893",

language = "אנגלית",

volume = "67",

pages = "39--59",

journal = "Population Studies",

issn = "0032-4728",

publisher = "United Nations Publications",

number = "1",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Implications of China's future bride shortage for the geographical distribution and social protection needs of never-married men

AU - Sharygin, Ethan

AU - Ebenstein, Avraham

AU - Das Gupta, Monica

N1 - Funding Information: 2 The authors thank the Hewlett Foundation for grant support through Trust Fund TF070424 given to the World Bank. They also gratefully acknowledge valuable feed-back from the following: Adam Wagstaff, Ardo Hansson, Philip O’Keefe, Junjian Yi, and other participants in the Chinese Economists’ Association Conference, Xiamen, June 2010; participants in the Population-Poverty Re-search Network’s Conference at Cape Town, January 2010; participants in a seminar at the Population Council, New York in February 2010; and participants in the Population Association of America’s annual meeting, April 2011. The authors also thank Michael Freedman, Joan Feng, Alison Flamm, Aviad Glick, and Susan Schwartz for excellent research assistance. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and should not be attributed to the World Bank or any affiliated organization or member country.

PY - 2013/3

Y1 - 2013/3

N2 - Because sex ratios at birth have risen sharply in China in recent decades, an increasing proportion of men will be unable to find a bride, and will face old age without the support of a wife and children. We project the proportions of never-married men and their geographical distribution in China in the coming decades. Our projections assume that two tendencies in current marriage patterns will persist: that women will continue to migrate to wealthier areas and to prefer men with better prospects. We find that, by 2030, more than 20 per cent of men in China aged 30-39 will never have married, and that the proportion will be especially high among poor men in low-income provinces that are least able to provide social protection programmes. The projected geographic concentration of bachelors could be socially disruptive, and the results suggest a need to expand the coverage and central financing of social protection programmes.

AB - Because sex ratios at birth have risen sharply in China in recent decades, an increasing proportion of men will be unable to find a bride, and will face old age without the support of a wife and children. We project the proportions of never-married men and their geographical distribution in China in the coming decades. Our projections assume that two tendencies in current marriage patterns will persist: that women will continue to migrate to wealthier areas and to prefer men with better prospects. We find that, by 2030, more than 20 per cent of men in China aged 30-39 will never have married, and that the proportion will be especially high among poor men in low-income provinces that are least able to provide social protection programmes. The projected geographic concentration of bachelors could be socially disruptive, and the results suggest a need to expand the coverage and central financing of social protection programmes.

KW - China

KW - marriage market

KW - missing girls

KW - never-married men

KW - old-age support

KW - sex-selective abortion

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84873895044&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1080/00324728.2012.723893

DO - 10.1080/00324728.2012.723893

M3 - ???researchoutput.researchoutputtypes.contributiontojournal.article???

C2 - 23227821

AN - SCOPUS:84873895044

SN - 0032-4728

VL - 67

SP - 39

EP - 59

JO - Population Studies

JF - Population Studies

IS - 1

ER -

Implications of China's future bride shortage for the geographical distribution and social protection needs of never-married men

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Keywords

UN SDGs

Access to Document

Other files and links

Fingerprint

Cite this