Incision of alluvial channels in response to a continuous base level fall: Field characterization, modeling, and validation along the Dead Sea

The dramatic lake level drop of the Dead Sea during the twentieth century (∼ 30 m) provides a field-scale experiment in transport-limited incision of gravel-bed channels in response to quasi-continuous base level fall at approximately constant rate. We apply a one-dimensional numerical incision model based on a linear diffusion equation to seven ephemeral channels draining into the Dead Sea. The model inputs include the measured twentieth century lake level curve, annual shoreline location (i.e., annual channel lengthening following the lake level drop), reconstructed longitudinal profiles of each of the channels based on mapped and surveyed terraces, and the current profiles of the active channels. The model parameters included the diffusion coefficient and the upstream-derived sediment flux. Both were first calibrated using a set of longitudinal profiles of known ages and then validated using additional sets of longitudinal profiles. The maximum at-station total incision observed at each of the studied channels was significantly less then the total lake level drop and varied in response to both drainage area and lake bathymetry. The model applied predicted degradation rates and the pattern of degradation with high accuracy. This suggests that sediment flux in the modeled channels is indeed linearly dependent on slope. Further support for this linear dependency is provided by a linear correlation between the diffusion coefficient and the mean annual rain volume over each basin (a proxy for discharge). The model presented could be a valuable tool for planning in rapid base level fall environments where incision may risk infrastructure.