Inferences about the transmission of lumpy skin disease virus between herds from outbreaks in Albania in 2016

Simon Gubbins; Arjan Stegeman; Eyal Klement; Ledi Pite; Alessandro Broglia; José Cortiñas Abrahantes

doi:10.1016/j.prevetmed.2018.12.008

Inferences about the transmission of lumpy skin disease virus between herds from outbreaks in Albania in 2016

Simon Gubbins^*, Arjan Stegeman, Eyal Klement, Ledi Pite, Alessandro Broglia, José Cortiñas Abrahantes

^*Corresponding author for this work

The Koret School of Veterinary Medicine

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

19 Scopus citations

Abstract

Lumpy skin disease has recently emerged as a major threat to cattle populations outside of Africa, where it is endemic. In 2015 the first ever European outbreaks occurred in Greece, which were followed by spread across much of the Balkans in 2016. Here we use a simple mathematical model for the transmission of lumpy skin disease virus (LSDV) between herds to explore factors influencing its spread by fitting it to data on outbreaks in Albania in 2016. We show that most transmission occurs over short distances (<5 km), but with an appreciable probability of transmission at longer distances. We also show that there is evidence for seasonal variation in the force of infection associated with temperature, possibly through its influence on the relative abundance of the stable fly, Stomoxys calcitrans. These two results together are consistent with LSDV being transmitted by the bites of blood-feeding insects, though further work is required to incriminate specific species as vectors. Finally, we show that vaccination has a significant impact on spread and estimate the vaccine effectiveness to be 76%.

Original language	American English
Article number	104602
Journal	Preventive Veterinary Medicine
Volume	181
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.prevetmed.2018.12.008
State	Published - Aug 2020

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
SG was funded by the Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC) [grant numbers: BBS/E/I/00007033 , BBS/E/I/00007036 and BBS/E/I/00007037 ]. This work was carried out as part of the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) working group on lumpy skin disease. The authors are grateful to the hearing experts Aleksandra Miteva, Brigita Hengl, Marijan Glavina, Sotiria-Eleni Antoniou, Bafti Murati, Tatjana Labus, Drago Maroejvic, Zorana Mehmedbasic, Srgjan Meshterovikj and Esra Satir for useful discussions of the work.

Funding Information:
SG was funded by the Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC) [grant numbers: BBS/E/I/00007033, BBS/E/I/00007036 and BBS/E/I/00007037]. This work was carried out as part of the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) working group on lumpy skin disease. The authors are grateful to the hearing experts Aleksandra Miteva, Brigita Hengl, Marijan Glavina, Sotiria-Eleni Antoniou, Bafti Murati, Tatjana Labus, Drago Maroejvic, Zorana Mehmedbasic, Srgjan Meshterovikj and Esra Satir for useful discussions of the work.

Publisher Copyright:
© 2018 The Authors

Keywords

Cattle
Epidemiology
LSDV
Mathematical modelling
Vaccination

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.1016/j.prevetmed.2018.12.008

Cite this

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title = "Inferences about the transmission of lumpy skin disease virus between herds from outbreaks in Albania in 2016",

abstract = "Lumpy skin disease has recently emerged as a major threat to cattle populations outside of Africa, where it is endemic. In 2015 the first ever European outbreaks occurred in Greece, which were followed by spread across much of the Balkans in 2016. Here we use a simple mathematical model for the transmission of lumpy skin disease virus (LSDV) between herds to explore factors influencing its spread by fitting it to data on outbreaks in Albania in 2016. We show that most transmission occurs over short distances (<5 km), but with an appreciable probability of transmission at longer distances. We also show that there is evidence for seasonal variation in the force of infection associated with temperature, possibly through its influence on the relative abundance of the stable fly, Stomoxys calcitrans. These two results together are consistent with LSDV being transmitted by the bites of blood-feeding insects, though further work is required to incriminate specific species as vectors. Finally, we show that vaccination has a significant impact on spread and estimate the vaccine effectiveness to be 76%.",

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note = "Funding Information: SG was funded by the Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC) [grant numbers: BBS/E/I/00007033 , BBS/E/I/00007036 and BBS/E/I/00007037 ]. This work was carried out as part of the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) working group on lumpy skin disease. The authors are grateful to the hearing experts Aleksandra Miteva, Brigita Hengl, Marijan Glavina, Sotiria-Eleni Antoniou, Bafti Murati, Tatjana Labus, Drago Maroejvic, Zorana Mehmedbasic, Srgjan Meshterovikj and Esra Satir for useful discussions of the work. Funding Information: SG was funded by the Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC) [grant numbers: BBS/E/I/00007033, BBS/E/I/00007036 and BBS/E/I/00007037]. This work was carried out as part of the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) working group on lumpy skin disease. The authors are grateful to the hearing experts Aleksandra Miteva, Brigita Hengl, Marijan Glavina, Sotiria-Eleni Antoniou, Bafti Murati, Tatjana Labus, Drago Maroejvic, Zorana Mehmedbasic, Srgjan Meshterovikj and Esra Satir for useful discussions of the work. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2018 The Authors",

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journal = "Preventive Veterinary Medicine",

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AU - Gubbins, Simon

AU - Stegeman, Arjan

AU - Klement, Eyal

AU - Pite, Ledi

AU - Broglia, Alessandro

AU - Cortiñas Abrahantes, José

N1 - Funding Information: SG was funded by the Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC) [grant numbers: BBS/E/I/00007033 , BBS/E/I/00007036 and BBS/E/I/00007037 ]. This work was carried out as part of the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) working group on lumpy skin disease. The authors are grateful to the hearing experts Aleksandra Miteva, Brigita Hengl, Marijan Glavina, Sotiria-Eleni Antoniou, Bafti Murati, Tatjana Labus, Drago Maroejvic, Zorana Mehmedbasic, Srgjan Meshterovikj and Esra Satir for useful discussions of the work. Funding Information: SG was funded by the Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC) [grant numbers: BBS/E/I/00007033, BBS/E/I/00007036 and BBS/E/I/00007037]. This work was carried out as part of the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) working group on lumpy skin disease. The authors are grateful to the hearing experts Aleksandra Miteva, Brigita Hengl, Marijan Glavina, Sotiria-Eleni Antoniou, Bafti Murati, Tatjana Labus, Drago Maroejvic, Zorana Mehmedbasic, Srgjan Meshterovikj and Esra Satir for useful discussions of the work. Publisher Copyright: © 2018 The Authors

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N2 - Lumpy skin disease has recently emerged as a major threat to cattle populations outside of Africa, where it is endemic. In 2015 the first ever European outbreaks occurred in Greece, which were followed by spread across much of the Balkans in 2016. Here we use a simple mathematical model for the transmission of lumpy skin disease virus (LSDV) between herds to explore factors influencing its spread by fitting it to data on outbreaks in Albania in 2016. We show that most transmission occurs over short distances (<5 km), but with an appreciable probability of transmission at longer distances. We also show that there is evidence for seasonal variation in the force of infection associated with temperature, possibly through its influence on the relative abundance of the stable fly, Stomoxys calcitrans. These two results together are consistent with LSDV being transmitted by the bites of blood-feeding insects, though further work is required to incriminate specific species as vectors. Finally, we show that vaccination has a significant impact on spread and estimate the vaccine effectiveness to be 76%.

AB - Lumpy skin disease has recently emerged as a major threat to cattle populations outside of Africa, where it is endemic. In 2015 the first ever European outbreaks occurred in Greece, which were followed by spread across much of the Balkans in 2016. Here we use a simple mathematical model for the transmission of lumpy skin disease virus (LSDV) between herds to explore factors influencing its spread by fitting it to data on outbreaks in Albania in 2016. We show that most transmission occurs over short distances (<5 km), but with an appreciable probability of transmission at longer distances. We also show that there is evidence for seasonal variation in the force of infection associated with temperature, possibly through its influence on the relative abundance of the stable fly, Stomoxys calcitrans. These two results together are consistent with LSDV being transmitted by the bites of blood-feeding insects, though further work is required to incriminate specific species as vectors. Finally, we show that vaccination has a significant impact on spread and estimate the vaccine effectiveness to be 76%.

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KW - Epidemiology

KW - LSDV

KW - Mathematical modelling

KW - Vaccination

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SN - 0167-5877

VL - 181

JO - Preventive Veterinary Medicine

JF - Preventive Veterinary Medicine

M1 - 104602

ER -

Inferences about the transmission of lumpy skin disease virus between herds from outbreaks in Albania in 2016

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Keywords

UN SDGs

Access to Document

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