Influence of Arctic stratospheric ozone on surface climate in CCMI models

Ohad Harari, Chaim I. Garfinkel*, Shlomi Ziskin Ziv, Olaf Morgenstern, Guang Zeng, Simone Tilmes, Douglas Kinnison, Makoto Deushi, Patrick Jöckel, Andrea Pozzer, Fiona M. O'connor, Sean Davis

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

15 Scopus citations

Abstract

The Northern Hemisphere and tropical circulation response to interannual variability in Arctic stratospheric ozone is analyzed in a set of the latest model simulations archived for the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) project. All models simulate a connection between ozone variability and temperature/geopotential height in the lower stratosphere similar to that observed. A connection between Arctic ozone variability and polar cap surface air pressure is also found, but additional statistical analysis suggests that it is mediated by the dynamical variability that typically drives the anomalous ozone concentrations. While the CCMI models also show a connection between Arctic stratospheric ozone and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), with Arctic stratospheric ozone variability leading to ENSO variability 1 to 2 years later, this relationship in the models is much weaker than observed and is likely related to ENSO autocorrelation rather than any forced response to ozone. Overall, Arctic stratospheric ozone is related to lower stratospheric variability. Arctic stratospheric ozone may also influence the surface in both polar and tropical latitudes, though ozone is likely not the proximate cause of these impacts and these impacts can be masked by internal variability if data are only available for years.

Original languageAmerican English
Pages (from-to)9253-9268
Number of pages16
JournalAtmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Volume19
Issue number14
DOIs
StatePublished - 19 Jul 2019

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Publisher Copyright:
© Author(s) 2019.

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