Interactive effects of ambient fine particulate matter and ozone on daily mortality in 372 cities: two stage time series analysis

Cong Liu, Renjie Chen, Francesco Sera, Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera, Yuming Guo, Shilu Tong, Eric Lavigne, Patricia Matus Correa, Nicolás Valdés Ortega, Souzana Achilleos, Dominic Roye, Jouni J.K. Jaakkola, Niilo Ryti, Mathilde Pascal, Alexandra Schneider, Susanne Breitner, Alireza Entezari, Fatemeh Mayvaneh, Raanan Raz, Yasushi HondaMasahiro Hashizume, Chris Fook Sheng Ng, Vânia Gaio, Joana Madureira, Iulian Horia Holobaca, Aurelio Tobias, Carmen Íñiguez, Yue Leon Guo, Shih Chun Pan, Pierre Masselot, Michelle L. Bell, Antonella Zanobetti, Joel Schwartz, Antonio Gasparrini, Haidong Kan*

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

9 Scopus citations

Abstract

Objective: To investigate potential interactive effects of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone (O3) on daily mortality at global level. Design: Two stage time series analysis. Setting: 372 cities across 19 countries and regions. Population: Daily counts of deaths from all causes, cardiovascular disease, and respiratory disease. Main outcome measure: Daily mortality data during 1994-2020. Stratified analyses by co-pollutant exposures and synergy index (>1 denotes the combined effect of pollutants is greater than individual effects) were applied to explore the interaction between PM2.5 and O3 in association with mortality. Results: During the study period across the 372 cities, 19.3 million deaths were attributable to all causes, 5.3 million to cardiovascular disease, and 1.9 million to respiratory disease. The risk of total mortality for a 10 μg/m3 increment in PM2.5 (lag 0-1 days) ranged from 0.47% (95% confidence interval 0.26% to 0.67%) to 1.25% (1.02% to 1.48%) from the lowest to highest fourths of O3 concentration; and for a 10 μg/m3 increase in O3 ranged from 0.04% (-0.09% to 0.16%) to 0.29% (0.18% to 0.39%) from the lowest to highest fourths of PM2.5 concentration, with significant differences between strata (P for interaction <0.001). A significant synergistic interaction was also identified between PM2.5 and O3 for total mortality, with a synergy index of 1.93 (95% confidence interval 1.47 to 3.34). Subgroup analyses showed that interactions between PM2.5 and O3 on all three mortality endpoints were more prominent in high latitude regions and during cold seasons. Conclusion: The findings of this study suggest a synergistic effect of PM2.5 and O3 on total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality, indicating the benefit of coordinated control strategies for both pollutants.

Original languageAmerican English
Article numbere075203
JournalThe BMJ
DOIs
StatePublished - 4 Oct 2023

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