Introduction: rethinking strategic warning and intelligence failure in an era of global transformation

This special issue of Intelligence and National Security examines the persistence of strategic surprise and the limitations of existing early warning frameworks in an era of geopolitical volatility. Despite decades of scholarly and institutional focus, intelligence failures continue to occur across tactical, operational, and strategic levels. The articles in this issue offer new theoretical models, empirical analyses, and comparative perspectives that challenge conventional explanations rooted in cognitive bias, organizational dysfunction, or information gaps. By addressing structural, cultural, and methodological dimensions of warning, the volume proposes a more differentiated and adaptive understanding of intelligence failure and the conditions under which it recurs.