Intuitive prediction: Ecological validity versus representativeness

Insufficiently regressive intuitive predictions have been attributed to mistaken reliance on the representativeness heuristic. In contrast, we suggest that intuitive predictions stem from a conceptualization of 'goodness of prediction' that differs from the accepted statistical definition in terms of error minimization, namely, ecological validity-that is, representation of the substantive characteristics of the predicted variable Y and its distribution as well as of the relationship between Y and the predictor X-rather than minimization of prediction errors. Simultaneous satisfaction of the above representation requirements is achieved by multivalued prediction: The prediction of different Y' values for the same X value, resulting in conditional distributions Y'|X for at least some X values. Empirical results supporting this hypothesis are presented and discussed.