Long-range prediction and the stratosphere

Adam A. Scaife; Mark P. Baldwin; Amy H. Butler; Andrew J. Charlton-Perez; Daniela I.V. Domeisen; Chaim I. Garfinkel; Steven C. Hardiman; Peter Haynes; Alexey Yu Karpechko; Eun Pa Lim; Shunsuke Noguchi; Judith Perlwitz; Lorenzo Polvani; Jadwiga H. Richter; John Scinocca; Michael Sigmond; Theodore G. Shepherd; Seok Woo Son; David W.J. Thompson

doi:10.5194/acp-22-2601-2022

Long-range prediction and the stratosphere

Adam A. Scaife^*, Mark P. Baldwin, Amy H. Butler, Andrew J. Charlton-Perez, Daniela I.V. Domeisen, Chaim I. Garfinkel, Steven C. Hardiman, Peter Haynes, Alexey Yu Karpechko, Eun Pa Lim, Shunsuke Noguchi, Judith Perlwitz, Lorenzo Polvani, Jadwiga H. Richter, John Scinocca, Michael Sigmond, Theodore G. Shepherd, Seok Woo Son, David W.J. Thompson

^*Corresponding author for this work

Fredy & Nadine Herrmann Institute of Earth Sciences

Research output: Contribution to journal › Review article › peer-review

35 Scopus citations

Abstract

Over recent years there have been concomitant advances in the development of stratosphere-resolving numerical models, our understanding of stratosphere-troposphere interaction, and the extension of long-range forecasts to explicitly include the stratosphere. These advances are now allowing for new and improved capability in long-range prediction. We present an overview of this development and show how the inclusion of the stratosphere in forecast systems aids monthly, seasonal, and annual-to-decadal climate predictions and multidecadal projections. We end with an outlook towards the future and identify areas of improvement that could further benefit these rapidly evolving predictions.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	2601-2623
Number of pages	23
Journal	Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Volume	22
Issue number	4
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2601-2022
State	Published - 25 Feb 2022

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
Financial support. Adam A. Scaife and Steven C. Hardiman were supported by the Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme funded by BEIS (Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy) and Defra (Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs). Mark P. Baldwin was supported by the Natural Environment Research Council (grant no. NE/M006123/1). Jadwiga H. Richter was supported by the Regional and Global Model Analysis (RGMA) component of the Earth and Environmental System Modeling programme of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Biological and Environmental Research (BER) via the National Science Foundation (NSF; interagency agreement no. 1844590). Shunsuke Noguchi was supported by the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (KAKENHI; grant no. 19K14798). Eun-Pa Lim was supported by the Australian government’s National Environmental Science Program phase 2 and the Victorian Water and Climate Initiative phase 2. Seok-Woo Son was supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF), funded by the government of the Republic of Korea (Ministry of Science and ICT; grant no. 2017R1E1A1A01074889). David W. J. Thompson is supported by the US National Science Foundation Climate and Large-Scale Dynamics programme. Daniella I. V. Domeisen is supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation (project nos. PP00P2_170523 and PP00P2_198896). Chaim I. Garfinkel was supported by a European Research Council starting grant under the European Union Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (agreement no. 677756).

Publisher Copyright:
© 2022 Copernicus GmbH. All rights reserved.

Access to Document

10.5194/acp-22-2601-2022

Cite this

Scaife, A. A., Baldwin, M. P., Butler, A. H., Charlton-Perez, A. J., Domeisen, D. I. V., Garfinkel, C. I., Hardiman, S. C., Haynes, P., Karpechko, A. Y., Lim, E. P., Noguchi, S., Perlwitz, J., Polvani, L., Richter, J. H., Scinocca, J., Sigmond, M., Shepherd, T. G., Son, S. W., & Thompson, D. W. J. (2022). Long-range prediction and the stratosphere. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 22(4), 2601-2623. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2601-2022

@article{76479c3b42744873a8e7fb732f298ce9,

title = "Long-range prediction and the stratosphere",

abstract = "Over recent years there have been concomitant advances in the development of stratosphere-resolving numerical models, our understanding of stratosphere-troposphere interaction, and the extension of long-range forecasts to explicitly include the stratosphere. These advances are now allowing for new and improved capability in long-range prediction. We present an overview of this development and show how the inclusion of the stratosphere in forecast systems aids monthly, seasonal, and annual-to-decadal climate predictions and multidecadal projections. We end with an outlook towards the future and identify areas of improvement that could further benefit these rapidly evolving predictions.",

author = "Scaife, {Adam A.} and Baldwin, {Mark P.} and Butler, {Amy H.} and Charlton-Perez, {Andrew J.} and Domeisen, {Daniela I.V.} and Garfinkel, {Chaim I.} and Hardiman, {Steven C.} and Peter Haynes and Karpechko, {Alexey Yu} and Lim, {Eun Pa} and Shunsuke Noguchi and Judith Perlwitz and Lorenzo Polvani and Richter, {Jadwiga H.} and John Scinocca and Michael Sigmond and Shepherd, {Theodore G.} and Son, {Seok Woo} and Thompson, {David W.J.}",

year = "2022",

month = feb,

day = "25",

doi = "10.5194/acp-22-2601-2022",

language = "אנגלית",

volume = "22",

pages = "2601--2623",

journal = "Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics",

issn = "1680-7316",

publisher = "Copernicus Publications",

number = "4",

}

Scaife, AA, Baldwin, MP, Butler, AH, Charlton-Perez, AJ, Domeisen, DIV, Garfinkel, CI, Hardiman, SC, Haynes, P, Karpechko, AY, Lim, EP, Noguchi, S, Perlwitz, J, Polvani, L, Richter, JH, Scinocca, J, Sigmond, M, Shepherd, TG, Son, SW & Thompson, DWJ 2022, 'Long-range prediction and the stratosphere', Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, vol. 22, no. 4, pp. 2601-2623. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-2601-2022

TY - JOUR

T1 - Long-range prediction and the stratosphere

AU - Scaife, Adam A.

AU - Baldwin, Mark P.

AU - Butler, Amy H.

AU - Charlton-Perez, Andrew J.

AU - Domeisen, Daniela I.V.

AU - Garfinkel, Chaim I.

AU - Hardiman, Steven C.

AU - Haynes, Peter

AU - Karpechko, Alexey Yu

AU - Lim, Eun Pa

AU - Noguchi, Shunsuke

AU - Perlwitz, Judith

AU - Polvani, Lorenzo

AU - Richter, Jadwiga H.

AU - Scinocca, John

AU - Sigmond, Michael

AU - Shepherd, Theodore G.

AU - Son, Seok Woo

AU - Thompson, David W.J.

PY - 2022/2/25

Y1 - 2022/2/25

N2 - Over recent years there have been concomitant advances in the development of stratosphere-resolving numerical models, our understanding of stratosphere-troposphere interaction, and the extension of long-range forecasts to explicitly include the stratosphere. These advances are now allowing for new and improved capability in long-range prediction. We present an overview of this development and show how the inclusion of the stratosphere in forecast systems aids monthly, seasonal, and annual-to-decadal climate predictions and multidecadal projections. We end with an outlook towards the future and identify areas of improvement that could further benefit these rapidly evolving predictions.

AB - Over recent years there have been concomitant advances in the development of stratosphere-resolving numerical models, our understanding of stratosphere-troposphere interaction, and the extension of long-range forecasts to explicitly include the stratosphere. These advances are now allowing for new and improved capability in long-range prediction. We present an overview of this development and show how the inclusion of the stratosphere in forecast systems aids monthly, seasonal, and annual-to-decadal climate predictions and multidecadal projections. We end with an outlook towards the future and identify areas of improvement that could further benefit these rapidly evolving predictions.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85125848370&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.5194/acp-22-2601-2022

DO - 10.5194/acp-22-2601-2022

M3 - ???researchoutput.researchoutputtypes.contributiontojournal.systematicreview???

AN - SCOPUS:85125848370

SN - 1680-7316

VL - 22

SP - 2601

EP - 2623

JO - Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics

JF - Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics

IS - 4

ER -

Long-range prediction and the stratosphere

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Access to Document

Other files and links

Fingerprint

Cite this