Machine learning uncovers the most robust self-report predictors of relationship quality across 43 longitudinal couples studies

Samantha Joel*, Paul W. Eastwick, Colleen J. Allison, Ximena B. Arriaga, Zachary G. Baker, Eran Bar-Kalifa, Sophie Bergeron, Gurit E. Birnbaum, Rebecca L. Brock, Claudia C. Brumbaugh, Cheryl L. Carmichael, Serena Chen, Jennifer Clarke, Rebecca J. Cobb, Michael K. Coolsen, Jody Davis, David C. de Jong, Anik Debrot, Eva C. DeHaas, Jaye L. DerrickJami Eller, Marie Joelle Estrada, Ruddy Faure, Eli J. Finkel, R. Chris Fraley, Shelly L. Gable, Reuma Gadassi-Polack, Yuthika U. Girme, Amie M. Gordon, Courtney L. Gosnell, Matthew D. Hammond, Peggy A. Hannon, Cheryl Harasymchuk, Wilhelm Hofmann, Andrea B. Horn, Emily A. Impett, Jeremy P. Jamieson, Dacher Keltner, James J. Kim, Jeffrey L. Kirchner, Esther S. Kluwer, Madoka Kumashiro, Grace Larson, Gal Lazarus, Jill M. Logan, Laura B. Luchies, Geoff MacDonald, Laura V. Machia, Michael R. Maniaci, Jessica A. Maxwell, Moran Mizrahi, Amy Muise, Sylvia Niehuis, Brian G. Ogolsky, C. Rebecca Oldham, Nickola C. Overall, Meinrad Perrez, Brett J. Peters, Paula R. Pietromonaco, Sally I. Powers, Thery Prok, Rony Pshedetzky-Shochat, Eshkol Rafaeli, Erin L. Ramsdell, Maija Reblin, Michael Reicherts, Alan Reifman, Harry T. Reis, Galena K. Rhoades, William S. Rholes, Francesca Righetti, Lindsey M. Rodriguez, Ron Rogge, Natalie O. Rosen, Darby Saxbe, Haran Sened, Jeffry A. Simpson, Erica B. Slotter, Scott M. Stanley, Shevaun Stocker, Cathy Surra, Hagar Ter Kuile, Allison A. Vaughn, Amanda M. Vicary, Mariko L. Visserman, Scott Wolf

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

154 Scopus citations


Given the powerful implications of relationship quality for health and well-being, a central mission of relationship science is explaining why some romantic relationships thrive more than others. This large-scale project used machine learning (i.e., Random Forests) to 1) quantify the extent to which relationship quality is predictable and 2) identify which constructs reliably predict relationship quality. Across 43 dyadic longitudinal datasets from 29 laboratories, the top relationship-specific predictors of relationship quality were perceived-partner commitment, appreciation, sexual satisfaction, perceived-partner satisfaction, and conflict. The top individual-difference predictors were life satisfaction, negative affect, depression, attachment avoidance, and attachment anxiety. Overall, relationship-specific variables predicted up to 45% of variance at baseline, and up to 18% of variance at the end of each study. Individual differences also performed well (21% and 12%, respectively). Actor-reported variables (i.e., own relationship-specific and individual-difference variables) predicted two to four times more variance than partner-reported variables (i.e., the partner's ratings on those variables). Importantly, individual differences and partner reports had no predictive effects beyond actor-reported relationship-specific variables alone. These findings imply that the sum of all individual differences and partner experiences exert their influence on relationship quality via a person's own relationship-specific experiences, and effects due to moderation by individual differences and moderation by partner-reports may be quite small. Finally, relationship-quality change (i.e., increases or decreases in relationship quality over the course of a study) was largely unpredictable from any combination of self-report variables. This collective effort should guide future models of relationships.

Original languageAmerican English
Pages (from-to)19061-19071
Number of pages11
JournalProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Issue number32
StatePublished - 11 Aug 2020
Externally publishedYes

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2020 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.


  • Ensemble methods
  • Machine learning
  • Random Forests
  • Relationship quality
  • Romantic relationships


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