Modelling Climate and Societal Resilience in the Eastern Mediterranean in the Last Millennium

Elena Xoplaki; Jürg Luterbacher; Sebastian Wagner; Eduardo Zorita; Dominik Fleitmann; Johannes Preiser-Kapeller; Abigail M. Sargent; Sam White; Andrea Toreti; John F. Haldon; Lee Mordechai; Deniz Bozkurt; Sena Akçer-Ön; Adam Izdebski

doi:10.1007/s10745-018-9995-9

Modelling Climate and Societal Resilience in the Eastern Mediterranean in the Last Millennium

Elena Xoplaki^*, Jürg Luterbacher, Sebastian Wagner, Eduardo Zorita, Dominik Fleitmann, Johannes Preiser-Kapeller, Abigail M. Sargent, Sam White, Andrea Toreti, John F. Haldon, Lee Mordechai, Deniz Bozkurt, Sena Akçer-Ön, Adam Izdebski

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

62 Scopus citations

Abstract

This article analyses high-quality hydroclimate proxy records and spatial reconstructions from the Central and Eastern Mediterranean and compares them with two Earth System Model simulations (CCSM4, MPI-ESM-P) for the Crusader period in the Levant (1095–1290 CE), the Mamluk regime in Transjordan (1260–1516 CE) and the Ottoman crisis and Celâlî Rebellion (1580–1610 CE). During the three time intervals, environmental and climatic stress tested the resilience of complex societies. We find that the multidecadal precipitation and drought variations in the Central and Eastern Mediterranean cannot be explained by external forcings (solar variations, tropical volcanism); rather they were driven by internal climate dynamics. Our research emphasises the challenges, opportunities and limitations of linking proxy records, palaeoreconstructions and model simulations to better understand how climate can affect human history.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	363-379
Number of pages	17
Journal	Human Ecology
Volume	46
Issue number	3
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1007/s10745-018-9995-9
State	Published - 1 Jun 2018
Externally published	Yes

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2018, The Author(s).

Keywords

CMIP5 models
Complex societies
Early modern period
Eastern Mediterranean
First millennium
Middle Ages
Model/data comparison
Palaeoclimatology
Resilience

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10.1007/s10745-018-9995-9

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Xoplaki, E., Luterbacher, J., Wagner, S., Zorita, E., Fleitmann, D., Preiser-Kapeller, J., Sargent, A. M., White, S., Toreti, A., Haldon, J. F., Mordechai, L., Bozkurt, D., Akçer-Ön, S., & Izdebski, A. (2018). Modelling Climate and Societal Resilience in the Eastern Mediterranean in the Last Millennium. Human Ecology, 46(3), 363-379. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10745-018-9995-9

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abstract = "This article analyses high-quality hydroclimate proxy records and spatial reconstructions from the Central and Eastern Mediterranean and compares them with two Earth System Model simulations (CCSM4, MPI-ESM-P) for the Crusader period in the Levant (1095–1290 CE), the Mamluk regime in Transjordan (1260–1516 CE) and the Ottoman crisis and Cel{\^a}l{\^i} Rebellion (1580–1610 CE). During the three time intervals, environmental and climatic stress tested the resilience of complex societies. We find that the multidecadal precipitation and drought variations in the Central and Eastern Mediterranean cannot be explained by external forcings (solar variations, tropical volcanism); rather they were driven by internal climate dynamics. Our research emphasises the challenges, opportunities and limitations of linking proxy records, palaeoreconstructions and model simulations to better understand how climate can affect human history.",

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Xoplaki, E, Luterbacher, J, Wagner, S, Zorita, E, Fleitmann, D, Preiser-Kapeller, J, Sargent, AM, White, S, Toreti, A, Haldon, JF, Mordechai, L, Bozkurt, D, Akçer-Ön, S & Izdebski, A 2018, 'Modelling Climate and Societal Resilience in the Eastern Mediterranean in the Last Millennium', Human Ecology, vol. 46, no. 3, pp. 363-379. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10745-018-9995-9

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Modelling Climate and Societal Resilience in the Eastern Mediterranean in the Last Millennium

Abstract

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Keywords

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