National capabilities and foreign military intervention: A policy-relevant theoretical analysis

The recent successes of U.S. military interventions in Panama and the Gulf should not obscure the fact that since 1945 large scale foreign military interventions have quite often resulted in disastrous military, economic, and political consequences for the intervening power, in spite of what seemed a clear superiority in power over the adversary. Some of these cases, such as U.S. intervention in Vietnam, had far-reaching consequences for global and regional politics and stability. Yet, a broad policy-relevant theoretical analysis of the necessary and sufficient capability determinants of successful intervention does not exist, although it is imperative for avoiding adventurous decisions. This paper intends to fill the gap by providing a systematic policy-relevant theoretical analysis of these capabilities. The paper sets out in detail the military, economic, and political capability requirements for successful intervention. Short historical examples are used to illustrate the arguments.