On the results of testing dynamic and statistical method for forecasting tropical cyclone intensity

E. A. Agrenich*, A. P. Khain

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

Regression equation formulated on the basis of preliminary calculations by axisymmetrical evaluation model of tropical cyclone is applied by the method. Systematic forecasting errors are estimated on the basis of the typhoon archive data for 1986-1989. Results of the method testing with application of independent materials for the 1990 season, based on the data of the 'Typhoon-90' expedition are presented. Comparison of the test results with forecast evaluation by the method of the Far-Eastern Scientific and Research Institute (FESRI) is carried out. Conclusion is made on the advisability of application of this method alongside with the FESRI method, particularly in those cases, where the FESRI method cannot be applied.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)101-105
Number of pages5
JournalMeteorologiya i Gidrologiya
Issue number12
StatePublished - Dec 1991

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