On the subjective probability of compound events

Maya Bar-Hillel

doi:10.1016/0030-5073(73)90061-5

On the subjective probability of compound events

Maya Bar-Hillel^*

^*Corresponding author for this work

Department of Psychology

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

183 Scopus citations

Abstract

Subjects were requested to choose between gambles, where the outcome of one gamble depended on a single elementary event, and the other depended on an event compounded of a series of such elementary events. The data supported the hypothesis that the subjective probability of a compound event is systematically biased in the direction of the probability of its components resulting in overestimation of conjunctive events and underestimation of disjunctive events. Studies pertaining to this topic are discussed.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	396-406
Number of pages	11
Journal	Organizational Behavior and Human Performance
Volume	9
Issue number	3
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/0030-5073(73)90061-5
State	Published - Jun 1973

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title = "On the subjective probability of compound events",

abstract = "Subjects were requested to choose between gambles, where the outcome of one gamble depended on a single elementary event, and the other depended on an event compounded of a series of such elementary events. The data supported the hypothesis that the subjective probability of a compound event is systematically biased in the direction of the probability of its components resulting in overestimation of conjunctive events and underestimation of disjunctive events. Studies pertaining to this topic are discussed.",

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On the subjective probability of compound events

Abstract

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