On the trajectory of discrimination: A meta-analysis and forecasting survey capturing 44 years of field experiments on gender and hiring decisions

Michael Schaerer*, Christilene Du Plessis, My Hoang Bao Nguyen, Robbie C.M.Van Aert, Leo Tiokhin, Daniel Lakens, Elena Giulia Clemente, Thomas Pfeiffer, Anna Dreber, Magnus Johannesson, Cory J. Clark, Eric Luis Uhlmann, Ajay T. Abraham, Magdalena Adamus, Cinla Akinci, Federica Alberti, Abdelaziz M. Alsharawy, Shilaan Alzahawi, Frederik Anseel, Felix ArndtBinnur Balkan, Ernest Baskin, Carrie E. Bearden, Eric G. Benotsch, Stefan Bernritter, Sheila R. Black, Wiebke Bleidorn, Andrew P. Boysen, Justin P. Brienza, Mitch Brown, Stephanie E.V. Brown, Joshua W. Brown, Jeffrey Buckley, Brett Buttliere, Nick Byrd, Hynek Cígler, Tabaŕe Capitan, Paolo Cherubini, Shao Yuan Chong, Esma Esen Ciftci, Cheryl D. Conrad, Paul Conway, Elaine Costa, Jolene A. Cox, Daniel J. Cox, Francisco Cruz, Ian G.J. Dawson, Elif E. Demiral, Jaye L. Derrick, Shemal Doshi, Daniel J. Dunleavy, Justin D. Durham, Christian T. Elbaek, David A. Ellis, Eyal Ert, Maria Paz Espinoza, Sascha C. Füllbrunn, Sean Fath, Remy Furrer, Lenka Fiala, Adrien Alejandro Fillon, Mattias Forsgren, Agapi Thaleia Fytraki, Francisco B. Galarza, Linnea Gandhi, S. Mason Garrison, Diogo Geraldes, Omid Ghasemi, Biljana Gjoneska, Jennifer Gothilander, Daniel Grühn, Manuel Grieder, Sebastian Hafenbr¨adl, Georgios Halkias, Roeland Hancock, Donald A. Hantula, Helen C. Harton, Christian P. Hoffmann, Felix Holzmeister, Filip Hoŕak, Ann Katrin Hosch, Hirotaka Imada, Konstantinos Ioannidis, Bastian Jaeger, Moritz Janas, Bartosz Janik, Raghabendra Pratap Kc, Pamela K. Keel, Jared W. Keeley, Lucas Keller, Douglas T. Kenrick, Kim M. Kiely, Mikael Knutsson, Aleksandra Kovacheva, Margaret Bull Kovera, Vladislav Krivoshchekov, Elizabeth J. Krumrei-Mancuso, Danica Kulibert, David Lacko, Edward P. Lemay, Desmond W. Leung, Flora Li, Hause Lin, Kyle E. Lorenzo, Lorenzo Lorenzo-Luaces, Nigel Mantou Lou, Andrey Lovakov, Andre Luzardo, Samuel C. MacAulay, Christopher R. Madan, Ola Mahmoud, Matthew C. Makel, Silvia Mari, Diego Marino Fages, Abigail A. Marsh, Randy J. McCarthy, Brett Mercier, Taciano L. Milfont, Sergio Mittlaender, Amanda K. Montoya, Anne Moyer, Kristian Ove R. Myrseth, Daniel Navarro-Martinez, Anthony J. Nelson, Levent Neyse, N. Minghui, Pawe? Niszczota, Natalie A. Obrecht, Tobias Otterbring, Zaviera A. Panlilio, Lora E. Park, Shiva Pauer, Yuri G. Pavlov, Imre Pentek, Juan S. Pereyra, Patryk Perkowski, Ethan Pew, Zehra F. Peynirciǒglu, Mark V. Pezzo, Angelo Pirrone, Ori Plonsky, Jonas C.C. Porfírio, Madeleine Pownall, MacIej M. Pŕochnicki, John Protzko, Jan P. R¨oer, Dobromir Rahnev, Harry T. Reis, Kimberly Rios, David L. Rodrigues, Priscilla Rodriguez, Yefim Roth, Bradley J. Ruffle, Margaret Samahita, Aishameriane Schmidt, Martin Schoemann, Philipp Schoenegger, David C. Schwebel, Adrian M. Segovia, Jeffrey W. Sherman, Simon Siegenthaler, Birte Siem, Miroslav Sirota, Eliot R. Smith, Antonios Stamatogiannakis, Steve Stewart-Williams, Daniel Storage, Yuxin Su, Eli J. Talbert, Andrew R. Todd, Mirco Tonin, Stefan T. Trautmann, Giovanni A. Travaglino, Jo Ann Tsang, Roel Van Veldhuizen, Michael E.W. Varnum, Alicia A. Walf, Lukas Wallrich, Ke Wang, Deborah E. Ward, Christian E. Waugh, Tobias Wingen, Jan K. Woike, Conny E. Wollbrant, Shuping Wu, Keith Wylie, Qinyu Xiao, Sherrie Y. Xue, Ofir Yakobi, Vivian Zayas, Jie Zheng, Yuyang Zhong, Cristina Zogmaister, Camille S. Zolopa, Norrgren Lisa, Cong Chin Wen, Grigoryev Dmitry

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

2 Scopus citations

Abstract

A preregistered meta-analysis, including 244 effect sizes from 85 field audits and 361,645 individual job applications, tested for gender bias in hiring practices in female-stereotypical and gender-balanced as well as male-stereotypical jobs from 1976 to 2020. A “red team” of independent experts was recruited to increase the rigor and robustness of our meta-analytic approach. A forecasting survey further examined whether laypeople (n = 499 nationally representative adults) and scientists (n = 312) could predict the results. Forecasters correctly anticipated reductions in discrimination against female candidates over time. However, both scientists and laypeople overestimated the continuation of bias against female candidates. Instead, selection bias in favor of male over female candidates was eliminated and, if anything, slightly reversed in sign starting in 2009 for mixed-gender and male-stereotypical jobs in our sample. Forecasters further failed to anticipate that discrimination against male candidates for stereotypically female jobs would remain stable across the decades.

Original languageAmerican English
Article number104280
JournalOrganizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes
Volume179
DOIs
StatePublished - Nov 2023

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2023 The Authors

Keywords

  • Discrimination
  • Field experiments
  • Forecasting
  • Gender
  • Meta-analysis
  • Open science

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