Peaceful Reunification or Else: Untangling the China-Taiwan Gordian Knot

This article explores four perspectives for settling the China-Taiwan problem, as a multilateral less than a bilateral issue. A Western united front, led by Washington, is the key to enable Taiwan to withstand any of the options: maintaining the status quo; gaining independence; Chinese military occupation; and peaceful (re)unification. Apparently, the prevailing status quo cannot continue much longer, given Mainland China’s increased strength and Taiwan’s growing isolation—unless it is internationally backed. Given the nearly unanimous external commitment to Beijing’s One China principle, independence is hardly conceivable. For Beijing, it implies not only war but also threats to sever diplomatic relations with governments that recognize Taiwan. However, unlike Mao’s China, which was practically immune to Western sanctions despite its military and economic weakness, and because of its isolation, post-Mao China is stronger, yet paradoxically more vulnerable. Severing relations would undermine China’s economy, and the Communist Party survival. War, the third option, while catastrophic to Taiwan still could, with Western aid, inflict disastrous damage also to China. Optimally, the fourth option, guaranteed and shielded by the West, is peaceful unification based on bilateral negotiations. An inevitable complication, what to do with Taiwan’s armed forces, is discussed based on historical precedents.