Police-Led Interventions for Deterring Organized Crime: A UK Cluster Randomized Trial Targeting Criminal Network Recruiting and Its Vicarious Effects on Co-Offenders

Serious and organized crime represents a significant global threat. In this experiment, we focus on preventing offenders from joining these groups and how this intervention affects the criminal enterprise of the organized crime group with whom the target offenders are associated. We apply a cluster randomized controlled trial in the West Midlands, UK, to test a form of focused deterrence approach—“preventative-specific deterrence”. The intervention group received proactive and sustained police interactions (‘stick’) coupled with a police-managed pathways plan, designed to support desistance (‘carrot’). Control participants received business-as-usual conditions. Over 12 months, we detected a 35% reduction in reoffending among participants in the treatment group compared to the control group, but a 25% increase in arrests of active crime group members. The results suggest that preventative-specific deterrence can be an effective strategy against serious and organized crime and that prevention may also lead to suppression opportunities of organized criminals.