Precision and accuracy of judgmental estimation

Ilan Yaniv*, Dean P. Foster

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

142 Scopus citations

Abstract

Whereas probabilistic calibration has been a central normative concept of accuracy in previous research on interval estimates, we suggest here that normative approaches for the evaluation of judgmental estimates should consider the communicative interaction between the individuals who produce the judgments and those who receive or use them for making decisions. We analyze precision and error in judgment and consider the role of the accuracy-informativeness trade-off (Yaniv and Foster, 1995) in the communication of estimates. The results shed light on puzzling findings reported earlier in the literature concerning the calibration of subjective confidence intervals.

Original languageAmerican English
Pages (from-to)21-32
Number of pages12
JournalJournal of Behavioral Decision Making
Volume10
Issue number1
DOIs
StatePublished - 1997

Keywords

  • Accuracy-informativeness trade-off
  • Graininess of judgment
  • Judgmental estimation
  • Subjective confidence interval

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