Predicting the potential for lightning activity in Mediterranean storms based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model dynamic and microphysical fields

Yoav Yair, Barry Lynn, Colin Price, Vassiliki Kotroni, Konstantinos Lagouvardos, Efrat Morin, Alberto Mugnai, Maria Del Carmen Llasat

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

128 Scopus citations

Abstract

A new parameter is introduced: the lightning potential index (LPI), which is a measure of the potential for charge generation and separation that leads to lightning flashes in convective thunderstorms. The LPI is calculated within the charge separation region of clouds between 0°C and -20°C, where the noninductive mechanism involving collisions of ice and graupel particles in the presence of supercooled water is most effective. As shown in several case studies using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with explicit microphysics, the LPI is highly correlated with observed lightning. It is suggested that the LPI may be a useful parameter for predicting lightning as well as a tool for improving weather forecasting of convective storms and heavy rainfall.

Original languageAmerican English
Article numberD04205
JournalJournal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres
Volume115
Issue number4
DOIs
StatePublished - 2010

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