Quantifying the role of solar radiative forcing over the 20th century

Shlomi Ziskin, Nir J. Shaviv*

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

9 Scopus citations


The 20th century temperature anomaly record is reproduced using an energy balance model, with a diffusive deep ocean. The model takes into account all the standard radiative forcings, and in addition the possibility of a non-thermal solar component. The model is parameterized and then optimized to produce the most likely values for the climate parameters and radiative forcings which reproduce the 20th century global warming. We find that the best fit is obtained with a negligible net feedback. We also show that a non-thermal solar component is necessarily present, indicating that the total solar contribution to the 20th century global warming, of ΔT solar = 0.27 ± 0.07 °C, is much larger than can be expected from variation in the total solar irradiance alone. However, we also find that the largest contribution to the 20th century warming comes from anthropogenic sources, with ΔT man = 0.42 ± 0.11 °C.

Original languageAmerican English
Pages (from-to)762-776
Number of pages15
JournalAdvances in Space Research
Issue number6
StatePublished - 15 Sep 2012


  • Climate modeling
  • Global climate
  • Solar variability impact


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