Recent changes and relations among drought, vegetation and wildfires in the Eastern Mediterranean: The case of Israel

Marco Turco; Noam Levin; Naama Tessler; Hadas Saaroni

doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2016.09.002

Recent changes and relations among drought, vegetation and wildfires in the Eastern Mediterranean: The case of Israel

Marco Turco^*, Noam Levin, Naama Tessler, Hadas Saaroni

^*Corresponding author for this work

Department of Geography

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

54 Scopus citations

Abstract

On-going changes in drought, vegetation and wildfires in Israel provide a key example of possible future evolution in transition areas at the border between Mediterranean and arid climates. Here we present multiple lines of evidence suggesting that drought conditions in Israel, representing the eastern Mediterranean, have increased during the period 1980–2014. Drought conditions were calculated using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSI). A 30-year series (1982–2011) of monthly Fraction of Photosynthetically Active Radiation absorbed by vegetation (FPAR) indicates generally positive trends in winter and spring and negative ones in summer and autumn, except in the transition zone between the southern Negev desert and the Mediterranean climate region, where a statistically significant negative trend in all seasons was found. Available ground observations suggest that fire activity has decreased during the period 1987–2011. Apparent year-to-year oscillations are superposed onto these long-term trends. We show that inter-annual variability of summer fires is related to antecedent wet conditions and to above normal vegetation conditions. These relationships suggest the summer fires in Israel are mainly limited by fuel availability rather than by fuel flammability. On the other hand, the year-to-year variations of spring and autumn fires are significantly related with drought indices. Thus, the increase of drought conditions together with climate projections for further warming and drying in this region, point at a potential increase of fire risk in the intermediate seasons.

Original language	American English
Pages (from-to)	28-35
Number of pages	8
Journal	Global and Planetary Change
Volume	151
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2016.09.002
State	Published - Apr 2017

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
This work was supported by the Italian project of Interest “NextData” of the Italian Ministry for Education, University and Research, by the European Science Foundation within the framework of COST FP1204 (linking environmental with social aspects in studying and managing urban forests) and by the Israel Science Foundation (ISF, grant no. 597/13). Special thanks are devoted to the JNF for providing the forest fire data.

Publisher Copyright:
© 2016 Elsevier B.V.

Keywords

Climate change
Drought indices
Forest and wildfire
Israel
Mediterranean

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.1016/j.gloplacha.2016.09.002

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@article{78a25ea15ecf4a138a2343b8bbea997c,

title = "Recent changes and relations among drought, vegetation and wildfires in the Eastern Mediterranean: The case of Israel",

abstract = "On-going changes in drought, vegetation and wildfires in Israel provide a key example of possible future evolution in transition areas at the border between Mediterranean and arid climates. Here we present multiple lines of evidence suggesting that drought conditions in Israel, representing the eastern Mediterranean, have increased during the period 1980–2014. Drought conditions were calculated using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSI). A 30-year series (1982–2011) of monthly Fraction of Photosynthetically Active Radiation absorbed by vegetation (FPAR) indicates generally positive trends in winter and spring and negative ones in summer and autumn, except in the transition zone between the southern Negev desert and the Mediterranean climate region, where a statistically significant negative trend in all seasons was found. Available ground observations suggest that fire activity has decreased during the period 1987–2011. Apparent year-to-year oscillations are superposed onto these long-term trends. We show that inter-annual variability of summer fires is related to antecedent wet conditions and to above normal vegetation conditions. These relationships suggest the summer fires in Israel are mainly limited by fuel availability rather than by fuel flammability. On the other hand, the year-to-year variations of spring and autumn fires are significantly related with drought indices. Thus, the increase of drought conditions together with climate projections for further warming and drying in this region, point at a potential increase of fire risk in the intermediate seasons.",

keywords = "Climate change, Drought indices, Forest and wildfire, Israel, Mediterranean",

author = "Marco Turco and Noam Levin and Naama Tessler and Hadas Saaroni",

note = "Funding Information: This work was supported by the Italian project of Interest “NextData” of the Italian Ministry for Education, University and Research, by the European Science Foundation within the framework of COST FP1204 (linking environmental with social aspects in studying and managing urban forests) and by the Israel Science Foundation (ISF, grant no. 597/13). Special thanks are devoted to the JNF for providing the forest fire data. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2016 Elsevier B.V.",

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doi = "10.1016/j.gloplacha.2016.09.002",

language = "American English",

volume = "151",

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T2 - The case of Israel

AU - Turco, Marco

AU - Levin, Noam

AU - Tessler, Naama

AU - Saaroni, Hadas

N1 - Funding Information: This work was supported by the Italian project of Interest “NextData” of the Italian Ministry for Education, University and Research, by the European Science Foundation within the framework of COST FP1204 (linking environmental with social aspects in studying and managing urban forests) and by the Israel Science Foundation (ISF, grant no. 597/13). Special thanks are devoted to the JNF for providing the forest fire data. Publisher Copyright: © 2016 Elsevier B.V.

PY - 2017/4

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N2 - On-going changes in drought, vegetation and wildfires in Israel provide a key example of possible future evolution in transition areas at the border between Mediterranean and arid climates. Here we present multiple lines of evidence suggesting that drought conditions in Israel, representing the eastern Mediterranean, have increased during the period 1980–2014. Drought conditions were calculated using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSI). A 30-year series (1982–2011) of monthly Fraction of Photosynthetically Active Radiation absorbed by vegetation (FPAR) indicates generally positive trends in winter and spring and negative ones in summer and autumn, except in the transition zone between the southern Negev desert and the Mediterranean climate region, where a statistically significant negative trend in all seasons was found. Available ground observations suggest that fire activity has decreased during the period 1987–2011. Apparent year-to-year oscillations are superposed onto these long-term trends. We show that inter-annual variability of summer fires is related to antecedent wet conditions and to above normal vegetation conditions. These relationships suggest the summer fires in Israel are mainly limited by fuel availability rather than by fuel flammability. On the other hand, the year-to-year variations of spring and autumn fires are significantly related with drought indices. Thus, the increase of drought conditions together with climate projections for further warming and drying in this region, point at a potential increase of fire risk in the intermediate seasons.

AB - On-going changes in drought, vegetation and wildfires in Israel provide a key example of possible future evolution in transition areas at the border between Mediterranean and arid climates. Here we present multiple lines of evidence suggesting that drought conditions in Israel, representing the eastern Mediterranean, have increased during the period 1980–2014. Drought conditions were calculated using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSI). A 30-year series (1982–2011) of monthly Fraction of Photosynthetically Active Radiation absorbed by vegetation (FPAR) indicates generally positive trends in winter and spring and negative ones in summer and autumn, except in the transition zone between the southern Negev desert and the Mediterranean climate region, where a statistically significant negative trend in all seasons was found. Available ground observations suggest that fire activity has decreased during the period 1987–2011. Apparent year-to-year oscillations are superposed onto these long-term trends. We show that inter-annual variability of summer fires is related to antecedent wet conditions and to above normal vegetation conditions. These relationships suggest the summer fires in Israel are mainly limited by fuel availability rather than by fuel flammability. On the other hand, the year-to-year variations of spring and autumn fires are significantly related with drought indices. Thus, the increase of drought conditions together with climate projections for further warming and drying in this region, point at a potential increase of fire risk in the intermediate seasons.

KW - Climate change

KW - Drought indices

KW - Forest and wildfire

KW - Israel

KW - Mediterranean

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DO - 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2016.09.002

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:85011067798

SN - 0921-8181

VL - 151

SP - 28

EP - 35

JO - Global and Planetary Change

JF - Global and Planetary Change

ER -

Recent changes and relations among drought, vegetation and wildfires in the Eastern Mediterranean: The case of Israel

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Keywords

UN SDGs

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