Results of testing the hydrodynamic forecasting method of tornado intensity in Caribbean Basin

L. Al'vares; E. A. Agrenich; R. P. Parrado; A. P. Khain

Results of testing the hydrodynamic forecasting method of tornado intensity in Caribbean Basin

L. Al'vares^*, E. A. Agrenich, R. P. Parrado, A. P. Khain

^*Corresponding author for this work

Fredy & Nadine Herrmann Institute of Earth Sciences

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

A method of forecasting the intensity of tropical cyclone (TC) is proposed. The method was evaluated during 14 hurricanes in the Caribbean Basin in 1977-1988. The actual TC trajectories were used to calculate TC intensities. The method displayed a sufficient efficiency of forecasting the evolution of tropical depressions up to 72 h. It means that TC evolution is considerably determined by the external conditions at the stage of tropical depression, in particular, by ocean surface temperature (T_w), and that T_w plays an important role in further TC evolution. This conclusion fits the results of numeric calculations and theoretical findings.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	102-105
Number of pages	4
Journal	Meteorologiya i Gidrologiya
Issue number	9
State	Published - Sep 1991

Cite this

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title = "Results of testing the hydrodynamic forecasting method of tornado intensity in Caribbean Basin",

abstract = "A method of forecasting the intensity of tropical cyclone (TC) is proposed. The method was evaluated during 14 hurricanes in the Caribbean Basin in 1977-1988. The actual TC trajectories were used to calculate TC intensities. The method displayed a sufficient efficiency of forecasting the evolution of tropical depressions up to 72 h. It means that TC evolution is considerably determined by the external conditions at the stage of tropical depression, in particular, by ocean surface temperature (Tw), and that Tw plays an important role in further TC evolution. This conclusion fits the results of numeric calculations and theoretical findings.",

author = "L. Al'vares and Agrenich, {E. A.} and Parrado, {R. P.} and Khain, {A. P.}",

year = "1991",

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AU - Al'vares, L.

AU - Agrenich, E. A.

AU - Parrado, R. P.

AU - Khain, A. P.

PY - 1991/9

Y1 - 1991/9

N2 - A method of forecasting the intensity of tropical cyclone (TC) is proposed. The method was evaluated during 14 hurricanes in the Caribbean Basin in 1977-1988. The actual TC trajectories were used to calculate TC intensities. The method displayed a sufficient efficiency of forecasting the evolution of tropical depressions up to 72 h. It means that TC evolution is considerably determined by the external conditions at the stage of tropical depression, in particular, by ocean surface temperature (Tw), and that Tw plays an important role in further TC evolution. This conclusion fits the results of numeric calculations and theoretical findings.

AB - A method of forecasting the intensity of tropical cyclone (TC) is proposed. The method was evaluated during 14 hurricanes in the Caribbean Basin in 1977-1988. The actual TC trajectories were used to calculate TC intensities. The method displayed a sufficient efficiency of forecasting the evolution of tropical depressions up to 72 h. It means that TC evolution is considerably determined by the external conditions at the stage of tropical depression, in particular, by ocean surface temperature (Tw), and that Tw plays an important role in further TC evolution. This conclusion fits the results of numeric calculations and theoretical findings.

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JO - Meteorologiya i Gidrologiya

JF - Meteorologiya i Gidrologiya

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Results of testing the hydrodynamic forecasting method of tornado intensity in Caribbean Basin

Abstract

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