Rivals in the dark: How competition influences search in decisions under uncertainty

Nathaniel D. Phillips*, Ralph Hertwig, Yaakov Kareev, Judith Avrahami

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

26 Scopus citations

Abstract

In choices between uncertain options, information search can increase the chances of distinguishing good from bad options. However, many choices are made in the presence of other choosers who may seize the better option while one is still engaged in search. How long do (and should) people search before choosing between uncertain options in the presence of such competition? To address this question, we introduce a new experimental paradigm called the competitive sampling game. We use both simulation and empirical data to compare search and choice between competitive and solitary environments. Simulation results show that minimal search is adaptive when one expects competitors to choose quickly or is uncertain about how long competitors will search. Descriptively, we observe that competition drastically reduces information search prior to choice.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)104-119
Number of pages16
JournalCognition
Volume133
Issue number1
DOIs
StatePublished - Oct 2014

Keywords

  • Competition
  • Decisions from experience
  • Decisions under uncertainty
  • Information search

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