TY - JOUR
T1 - Rivals in the dark
T2 - How competition influences search in decisions under uncertainty
AU - Phillips, Nathaniel D.
AU - Hertwig, Ralph
AU - Kareev, Yaakov
AU - Avrahami, Judith
PY - 2014/10
Y1 - 2014/10
N2 - In choices between uncertain options, information search can increase the chances of distinguishing good from bad options. However, many choices are made in the presence of other choosers who may seize the better option while one is still engaged in search. How long do (and should) people search before choosing between uncertain options in the presence of such competition? To address this question, we introduce a new experimental paradigm called the competitive sampling game. We use both simulation and empirical data to compare search and choice between competitive and solitary environments. Simulation results show that minimal search is adaptive when one expects competitors to choose quickly or is uncertain about how long competitors will search. Descriptively, we observe that competition drastically reduces information search prior to choice.
AB - In choices between uncertain options, information search can increase the chances of distinguishing good from bad options. However, many choices are made in the presence of other choosers who may seize the better option while one is still engaged in search. How long do (and should) people search before choosing between uncertain options in the presence of such competition? To address this question, we introduce a new experimental paradigm called the competitive sampling game. We use both simulation and empirical data to compare search and choice between competitive and solitary environments. Simulation results show that minimal search is adaptive when one expects competitors to choose quickly or is uncertain about how long competitors will search. Descriptively, we observe that competition drastically reduces information search prior to choice.
KW - Competition
KW - Decisions from experience
KW - Decisions under uncertainty
KW - Information search
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84903998732&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.cognition.2014.06.006
DO - 10.1016/j.cognition.2014.06.006
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C2 - 25010397
AN - SCOPUS:84903998732
SN - 0010-0277
VL - 133
SP - 104
EP - 119
JO - Cognition
JF - Cognition
IS - 1
ER -