Rural migrants in urban centers: Sources of vulnerability or agents of adaptive capacity?

Research on climate migration is increasingly analyzing not only the role of climate as a migration driver but also migration's adaptive and maladaptive outcomes. However, despite broad recognition that climate-related migration is overwhelmingly rural-to-urban, migration's effects on the vulnerability and adaptive capacity of the receiving urban destinations, many of which struggle to adapt to climate change, have received scant attention. To begin addressing this gap, this study examines how urban planners and policymakers in flood-prone Dar es Salaam, Tanzania's main migration destination and Africa's fastest-growing metropolis, perceive these effects. To this end, we utilize semi-structured interviews to examine three interrelated dimensions: migration's effects on flooding, the potential responses to ameliorate its adverse effects, and migrants' capabilities and the ways the city can harness those capabilities to reduce flooding. The results show that most planners and policymakers view migration as mainly exacerbating flooding yet also perceive migrants as possessing the potential to contribute to urban adaptation. This potential encompasses aspects recognizing migrants' agency, such as adaptation knowledge and planning skills, alongside ‘physical-economic’ elements linked with the use of migrants as labor for maintaining drainage channels and their contribution to enlarging the city's tax base, which may assist in funding flood-prevention infrastructure. However, the results also point to Dar es Salaam's inaction to exploit this potential, accompanied by a perceived lack of responsibility for advancing adaptation. We conclude by highlighting the importance of adopting a proactive approach to mapping and harnessing migrants' capabilities, ultimately contingent on cities' willingness to assume this responsibility.