Scenario building as a tool for planning a sustainable transportation system

Yoram Shiftan*, Sigal Kaplan, Shalom Hakkert

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

150 Scopus citations


Identifying policies that will result in a sustainable transportation system is a major challenge for policy makers since it involves a high level of uncertainty regarding the future effect of a given policy package on the transportation system and the urban environment. In this paper, we suggest and use a scenario approach to explore the future development of the Tel-Aviv Metropolitan Area (TAMA). We have constructed two scenarios for the future development of the TAMA: an expected scenario and a desired scenario. The scenarios were constructed by means of a two-round Delphi expert-based survey. Based on the opinion of the experts, our research examines the potential policy measures, which may contribute to a sustainable transportation system in Tel-Aviv. The development of both expected and desired scenarios helped to analyze the feasibility of the desired scenario and assess the likelihood of implementation of its different elements. According to the results, the key elements in the desired scenario are a highly developed public transport system, better coordination between the spatial development and the transportation system, high parking fees, congestion pricing and maintaining the functional role of the Central Business District area. The expected scenario shares many common elements with the desired scenario, which is considered a positive result.

Original languageAmerican English
Pages (from-to)323-342
Number of pages20
JournalTransportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment
Issue number5
StatePublished - Sep 2003
Externally publishedYes


  • Delphi method
  • Scenario building
  • Sustainability
  • Transport planning


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