TY - JOUR
T1 - Scenario building as a tool for planning a sustainable transportation system
AU - Shiftan, Yoram
AU - Kaplan, Sigal
AU - Hakkert, Shalom
PY - 2003/9
Y1 - 2003/9
N2 - Identifying policies that will result in a sustainable transportation system is a major challenge for policy makers since it involves a high level of uncertainty regarding the future effect of a given policy package on the transportation system and the urban environment. In this paper, we suggest and use a scenario approach to explore the future development of the Tel-Aviv Metropolitan Area (TAMA). We have constructed two scenarios for the future development of the TAMA: an expected scenario and a desired scenario. The scenarios were constructed by means of a two-round Delphi expert-based survey. Based on the opinion of the experts, our research examines the potential policy measures, which may contribute to a sustainable transportation system in Tel-Aviv. The development of both expected and desired scenarios helped to analyze the feasibility of the desired scenario and assess the likelihood of implementation of its different elements. According to the results, the key elements in the desired scenario are a highly developed public transport system, better coordination between the spatial development and the transportation system, high parking fees, congestion pricing and maintaining the functional role of the Central Business District area. The expected scenario shares many common elements with the desired scenario, which is considered a positive result.
AB - Identifying policies that will result in a sustainable transportation system is a major challenge for policy makers since it involves a high level of uncertainty regarding the future effect of a given policy package on the transportation system and the urban environment. In this paper, we suggest and use a scenario approach to explore the future development of the Tel-Aviv Metropolitan Area (TAMA). We have constructed two scenarios for the future development of the TAMA: an expected scenario and a desired scenario. The scenarios were constructed by means of a two-round Delphi expert-based survey. Based on the opinion of the experts, our research examines the potential policy measures, which may contribute to a sustainable transportation system in Tel-Aviv. The development of both expected and desired scenarios helped to analyze the feasibility of the desired scenario and assess the likelihood of implementation of its different elements. According to the results, the key elements in the desired scenario are a highly developed public transport system, better coordination between the spatial development and the transportation system, high parking fees, congestion pricing and maintaining the functional role of the Central Business District area. The expected scenario shares many common elements with the desired scenario, which is considered a positive result.
KW - Delphi method
KW - Scenario building
KW - Sustainability
KW - Transport planning
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=0042564558&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/S1361-9209(03)00020-8
DO - 10.1016/S1361-9209(03)00020-8
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AN - SCOPUS:0042564558
SN - 1361-9209
VL - 8
SP - 323
EP - 342
JO - Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment
JF - Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment
IS - 5
ER -
